Myanmar reshuffle a bid to centralise power: Analysts
The Times Of India (17-11-01)
YANGON: The recent shake-up of Myanmar's military, the most significant in four years, is aimed at centralising power and strengthening the junta's top three ruling generals, observers here say.
But citing limited information available in Myanmar, some diplomats in Yangon were saying further changes may be afoot and others pointing out that further shifts within the Tatmadaw, the local name for the army, would not be announced publicly.
Last weekend's reshuffle - the most important since the State Law and Order Restoration Council reinvented itself as the State Peace and Development Council four years ago this week - persuaded observers that power had become concentrated among Yangon's troika of generals.
Senior General Than Shwe, head of the SPDC, General Maung Aye, vice chairman of the SPDC, and Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt, first secretary and chief of military intelligence appear to have tightened their grip on power, they said.
Among the seven high ranking officials sacked in the reshuffle were SPDC third secretary Lieutenant-General Win Myint and Deputy Premier and Military Affairs Minister Lieutenant-General Tin Hla, both of whom were deeply involved in the economic workings of the country. Two other deputy premiers and three ministers were also dismissed. "But there are rumors that more could follow," an Asian diplomat said. On Friday the official media announced the new ministers to fill posts left vacant after the dismissals, but the changes amounted to a mere redistribution of portfolios.
Analysts in Yangon say many of the sackings aimed to remove corrupt officials while two others were made to clear out ageing ministers. "The message is that they are serious about attacking corruption," said one diplomat.
Both Win Myint and Tin Hla formerly headed Myanmar's state business enterprises - Myanmar Economic Holdings and Myanmar Economic Corporation - and virtually held the nation's purse strings.
Diplomats said the pair had been punished for corruption after they were apparently disgraced over complaints by Malaysian companies, which were delivered personally by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed to Than Shwe. They were also known to have stirred the ire of Japanese companies. Win Myint and Tin Hla have been confined to their homes and interrogated over their business dealings.
"They have been too greedy," one observer said. "Rank doesn't protect you from disciplinary action anymore." But isolating corruption among a few ranking generals could fail to address a larger problem, they added.
"Corruption was the final excuse, but the whole system is corrupt, the whole regime is corrupt," said another analyst. "The enormity of the shake-up" shows "they want to restructure deeply." Above all, analysts were struck by the magnitude of the reorganisation.
Military sources say 10 regional commanders are being brought to the capital to be promoted and four "special bureaus of the military operation" are being set up. These bureaus will control the country's north, south, east and west, and therefore wield a great deal of power. Each bureau will have three regions under its stewardship.
Here they are establishing "centralised military control," said one observer, "to have more control of the regions as these guys have so much power." The regional commanders are known to have accumulated considerable personal wealth and power in their respective areas.
"There are among them some ambitious people who want to come here and get promoted", a western diplomat based in Yangon said. "But some of them have made a lot of money in the regions and are not happy about leaving".
While the regional military shake-up has not been officially announced, the head of the central command in Mandalay sent out invitations this week for a farewell party, a source said.
The promotion of the regional commanders, who are mostly in their 50s, would introduce a younger generation of military leaders, confirmed vice minister of foreign affairs Khin Maung Win. "We need a turnover," he told AFP. "It's time to bring in new men with new ideas."
Under the threat of economic sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States for human rights violations, Myanmar has tried to project a more presentable face to maintain vital links amid a devastating economic crisis. International pressure to move forward with the "national reconciliation" dialogue could also be behind the changes in Yangon.
"Certain people think they want to prepare for a transition," explained an analyst, referring to ongoing talks between the junta and Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.
And finally, analysts have seen behind the reshuffle an obvious sign that power in this country that has been under military rule for the past 40 years is concentrated among the triumvirate of ruling generals: Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt. It is likely the secretary three post will be left vacant, as was the case with secretary two, Tin Oo, who died in a helicopter crash in February.
"Secretary two and secretary three are not positions to be replaced," an observer says. "It is very clear that the three are at the top," and the head of the trio, Than Shwe, has been "visibly reinforcing his position" recently, according to a diplomat. "It is he who decides everything in the end." ( AFP )