Junta Dissidents : Suu Kyi got the headlines, but the regime fears an internal challenge
Source : Roger Mitton, Asiaweek
Two portentous events in Burma elicited very different reactions recently. One grabbed international headlines, but generated little attention at home. The other was the talk of Rangoon, yet barely drew a ripple of interest overseas. As is often the case, their true significance is in inverse proportion to their media coverage. The first incident, a challenge by pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the regime took in its stride. But the junta was much more concerned about the second a slap in the face from a rising star in the army.
On Aug. 24, Suu Kyi and a dozen National League for Democracy colleagues tried to travel south of Yangon to confer with other NLD members. They knew from experience that they would not be allowed to do so. After driving a short distance, Suu Kyi's group was shunted onto a side lane near Dala town. A week later, they were still there. Officials have provided facilities and allowed them to buy supplies in Dala. Cooped up in her small white Toyota, Suu Kyi, 55, is unlikely to be feeling comfortable. But it is not the first time she has endured this. Two years ago, she did it four times giving up her final attempt due to ill health only after a 13-day car sit-in. Says a diplomat in Rangoon: "People expect this standoff to be lengthy, more than ten days. Her health will play a role."
Yet Suu Kyi's options are so limited that many wonder why she undertook the venture. "She has not been in the news for some time," notes Sunait Chutinaranond of Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University. "So she is sending out a message that she cannot be forgotten, that the democratic struggle continues and that she needs the world's attention." Suu Kyi herself denies this. Asked by Asiaweek last year about the motive for her 1998 car sit-ins, she said: "We don't do things to attract attention. We do what we think would help us in our political aims."
But her political choices remain constrained. "She has done this driving before, and she has written statements and made videos," says a Rangoon professional. "I'm not sure what else she can do." In an Aug. 21 video, she criticized the "sham" reopening of Burma's universities two months ago. Shut down in late 1996 after student protests, the campuses have been rebuilt far outside city centers and are being run with meager resources, substandard staff and a curtailed academic year. "After Suu Kyi released the video, she announced she would organize her party's youth wing in suburban towns," says an Asian diplomat in Rangoon. "She wants to encourage frustrated youths to show support. Three days later she goes on the road. I don't think it's a coincidence."
That is another reason the regime could not let her proceed. Spokesman Col. Hla Min told Asiaweek: "A lot of parents are concerned because she encouraged the students to be more active in politics. No one wants that. Everyone wants the kids to be able to study peacefully." Rangoon does not seem unduly worried by Suu Kyi's action. Even so, says Hla Min, "we would be happier if she would return to Yangon and continue her political activities there. But it is up to her."
While Western nations have been predictably critical, the reaction in Asia has been muted. In Burma itself, while many ordinary citizens admire Suu Kyi's courage, there is less favorable reaction from the business community. "Her stunt has already negatively impacted hotel bookings," says one irate expatriate. Even civilians are less swept up by the event than two years ago. Notes a diplomat in Rangoon: "After a week, many ordinary people still don't seem to know about it."
More significant is a growing divergence within the junta. A group of "new dissidents" has arisen in the military and one of its key members recently spoke out and lost his job. This was the other event that rocked Rangoon recently, though almost no place else. Even now, the regime has not announced it, in contrast to its flurry of statements on Suu Kyi. It concerns one of the military's brightest and most articulate officers, Brig.-Gen. Zaw Tun, the deputy minister for national planning and development.
On July 7, he spoke at a seminar on the Burmese economy. He did not clear his words with superiors. A favorite of junta leader Senior General Than Shwe, Zaw Tun, 52, felt he did not need to do so. He knew that the Burmese Investment Commission was a mess; its chairman, deputy chairman and secretary were all dumped late last year for ineptitude, corruption and philandering. And investment in the country was plummeting. Like other young officers, Zaw Tun saw the chronic incompetence at the economic ministries. His own progress had also been stymied. Zaw Tun had a reputation for candor. When asked by Asiaweek in March about the lack of economic progress, he said: "Maybe it's because we are a little shut down to the world. We still have a lot of restrictions compared with other countries. But gradually we are going to get it right."
His patience apparently exhausted, Zaw Tun threw caution to the wind in his speech. He lambasted the investment climate in Burma. He pointed out that contrary to official figures, GDP growth last year was about 6%, not 10.9%. "There is no consistency in the trade policy," he complained. Forcing tourists to buy $300 in Foreign Exchange Certificates was also wrong, he said (a month later, the amount was cut to $200). Zaw Tun even took his mentor, Than Shwe, to task. "Some who hold responsibilities in the country lack proper awareness," he said.
It was too much for the leadership and Zaw Tun was dismissed. "He's had to vacate his house and he lost his perks like his car and driver," says a Rangoon diplomat. "He was also stripped of his rank, but he is still in the army." Questions remain about why Zaw Tun said what he did and how much support he had from fellow officers. Says the diplomat: "He accepts that he went too far and has apologized. But many government officials and young officers, as well as most businessmen, agree with what he said."
That is what worries the leadership. "Some say Zaw Tun has become a hero overnight," notes an Asian diplomat. Few soldiers, if any, will say that in public. But observers point out that other officers have been treading a similar line. Most are in the coterie of regime strategist Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt. There is Col. Thein Swe, who championed this year's publication of The Myanmar Times, openly admitting it could not be worse than the government-backed New Light of Myanmar. There is Home Affairs Minister Col. Tin Hlaing, who took a risk by approving provisions for Red Cross access to political detainees. There is Win Aung, arguably ASEAN's most accessible foreign minister. There is Col. Kyaw Thein, who led the controversial policy of rapprochement with former drug barons. And there are Agriculture Minister Maj.-Gen. Nyunt Tin and his successor as southwest area commander, Brig.-Gen. Shwe Mann. Both are considered potential leaders.
One or more among this second-echelon group could pick up Zaw Tun's mantle, especially when the senior leadership is shuffled as expected in November, when Than Shwe will likely retire. As Thein Swe told Asiaweek earlier this year: "Things won't stay as they are. They will change in Burma. More efficient people will come in and more efficient policies will be introduced. You have to wait for the perfect timing." Zaw Tun got his timing wrong, but perhaps the next wave of rising officers will get it right.