Is junta planning to abandon Rangoon?

AUNG ZAW
Bangkok Post
June 06, 2005

Paranoia among Burma's military leaders about possible US invasion could be behind reported large-scale construction activity in Pyinmana area

Burmese kings in the distant past had fanciful ideas of relocating their capital. It is perhaps no wonder then that the current military rulers are having similar thoughts, though for less grandiose reasons.

Now, according to military analysts in the capital, the generals have a blueprint to move their military headquarters, or War Office as it's called, from Rangoon to Pyinmana, in central Burma's Mandalay division. But what for and does it make sense?

Yes it does, if you accept that the generals are becoming a little paranoid. Some analysts believe junta leaders are afraid that the US might launch a seaborne invasion of Burma. And if they do, coastal Rangoon would be the first to be hit.

According to this theory, military leaders fear the capital could be under siege within hours of an invasion. Even more far-fetched, perhaps, are reports that the junta is also worried that the US attack may come overland from neighbouring Thailand, a close US ally.

Unfounded fears? Perhaps.

Many will immediately dismiss such thoughts, and laugh at the idea of the US sending warships to Burmese waters, with F-16 jets screaming through the air to bomb the war office on Signal Pagoda Road. Surely the US has enough on its plate in the Middle East and Afghanistan to worry about little Burma, even though it has clamped tough sanctions on the country.

But some diplomats and other analysts in Rangoon say that paranoia really does exist among the Burmese brass. There has been persistent fear of a possible US invasion since the Iraq war, some analysts in Rangoon say. Therefore, the generals are thought to have drawn up contingency plans.

The Burmese analysts in Rangoon believe the junta only wants a better defence strategy, with no thought of any foreign adventure itself. At the same time, analysts realise the generals are not that stupid. They are smart enough to figure out what's going on in Washington. They are also said to be aware that the US has a long list of enemies, and Burma is nowhere near top of the hit list.

The analysts think this is all part of the generals' future plans. Burma's junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe has been stressing lately the country's need to build a strong, efficient and modern armed forces means a long shopping list of nice new military toys but almost certainly stopping short of acquiring a nuclear deterrent. Burma has brought MiG 29 jet fighters from Russia and anti-missile facilities.

In 2003, Burma bought armoured personnel carriers from Ukraine. Rangoon has reportedly signed a contract with Malyshev HMB plant in Kharkov to provide 1,000 new BTR-3U light armoured personnel carriers. From India, Rangoon has bought 75mm howitzers and a radar system.

Australian military analyst William Ashton says the Burmese government has been on an accelerated arms-buying spree since 2002. Although it is unclear where the regime has obtained the substantial funds needed to buy sophisticated arms, analysts suspect most of the money is offshore gas revenue.

Apart from upgrading weaponry in the navy and air force, the government has also increased the size of the Burmese army. In 1988, it had 180,000 men, but by mid-1995, the army's personnel strength rose to 265,000 officers and men, with the main combat element comprising a total of 245 light infantry battalions, according to Australian military analyst Andrew Selth. Now, the junta reportedly aims to increase army strength to around 400,000 men.

So now the question is why Pyinmana? Some military analysts think Pyinmana is strategically important. Not only is it safe from possible air attacks from an invading force, but the generals can also vanish in thick jungle and mountainous terrain around the area, to stage guerrilla warfare against any intruders. Western diplomats say the generals also want to install surface to air missiles there.

Pyinmana, a former stronghold of communist insurgents, is in central Burma and within easy reach of frontier Shan, Kayah, Chin and Karen states. So generals could improve lines of communication with troops in front-line areas.

With Pyinmana as their headquarters, the generals would be able quickly to deal with areas where ethnic minority insurgents could cause trouble.

Pyinmana was the site of the military headquarters of Burma' s independence hero Gen Aung San during the Japanese occupation in World War Two.

Since the collapse of the Communist Party of Burma in 1989, the communist threat, particularly in the Pegu and Arakan ranges and along the Chinese border, no longer exists. Moreover, with cease-fires with more than a dozen ethnic minority insurgent groups, the generals can now feel more secure.This factor may have encouraged them to start planning military expansion.

Indeed, the plan appears to be massive and under way. Office buildings, bunkers, fortresses, hospitals, underground tunnels, military airstrips and military mansions are reported to have been built around Pyinmana. Some government buildings and schools in Pyinmana are now under threat as the government might relocate them in the future.

The project was initiated by former prime minister Gen Khin Nyunt who also served as military adviser to Than Shwe. After Khin Nyunt was removed in October last year the project now is handled by high-ranking officials at the War Office in Rangoon. Locals also see senior officials fly in with helicopters overseeing the projects.

Two prominent Burmese companies, Asia World and Htoo Trading, have been given contracts to build new military offices. Both companies are known to be well connected to the military rulers. For instance, Te Za, in his 40s, managing director of Htoo Trading Co, is close to junta head and armed forces chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe. Reports say he was instrumental in helping the junta buy MiG-29 fighters and helicopters from Russia. An army of electricians, plumbers and technicians is said to have been hired and sent to the area.

Witnesses of new military facilities in Pyinmana said that a 300-bed military hospital is being built. More infantry troops are being stationed there.

Some analysts think the generals are also planning adequate power supplies for the new military facilities, and are keeping a close watch on these and other projects connected with the new military centre. In early April, junta number two Dep Snr-Gen Maung Aye visited the Paunglaung dam project in the Pyinmana area. Burmese newspapers say the project, started in 1997, is the country's first underground hydropower project, and one of the biggest in the power network.

Military analysts are interested to fathom the generals' forward thinking. Apart from preparing for a possible invasion and securing their long-term rule, some think junta leaders are also drawing up contingency plans to deal with any major uprisings and maybe even fractures in the army.

Aung Zaw is the editor of the Irrawaddy magazine based in Chiang Mai. www.irrawaddy.org