Fifteen years ago the Burmese people overwhelmingly voted for the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The military junta ignored the result and instead insisted that the elected MPs would draw up a new constitution. Fifteen years later, Burma is no nearer political change than ever before.
This is also the second anniversary of the violent attack by pro-government thugs on the pro-democracy leader and her entourage in the north of the country. Aung San Suu Kyi has been under house arrest ever since. In the past 12 months she has been under virtual solitary confinement, only her doctor has been allowed to visit her every two or three weeks.
But in the last few weeks murder and mayhem in Rangoon has rocked Burma's top military leaders and made them increasingly nervous about their future. The three bomb blasts in Rangoon earlier this month sent the regime into a panic. Their first reaction was to crack down on anyone they suspected was opposed to the regime.
Ironically, Burma's top generals have always feared assassination attempts. When the military moved against Ne Win's son-in-law and three grandsons in March 2002, they feared the family had hired an assassin from abroad after they had just returned from Thailand. They spent the next three days and nights holed up in the War Cabinet together fearing an attack if they dared to go home, according to a Burmese military source.
So the bomb blasts in the heart of Rangoon in several key commercial centres has rattled the regime. Within 24 hours, the authorities imposed a news black-out. The regime insists only 19 people died. But the actual death toll has mounted since and is over eighty according to sources in Rangoon, including several men in green. So stunned and shocked, Burma's military leaders are lashing out at everyone.
``The regime is still in the dark as to who was behind the bombs and are chasing their tails,'' said an Asian diplomat in Rangoon. Than Shwe has taken over control of the investigations, but his protégé, Rangoon commander and head of the new military intelligence branch, General Myint Swe is in charge of the day-to-day operations with the help of the 11th Light Infantry Division.
In recent days General Myint Swe has sought the help of the former deputy intelligence chief Major General Kyaw Win, and possibly other former senior intelligence officers, according to Rangoon sources close to former senior military intelligence officials.
But the regime has shunned numerous offers of international assistance. Thailand's offers of assistance have been rebuffed. And there was no response to the US's private offer of FBI forensic expertise. But they did ask former detained student leader Min Ko Naing to help in the investigation.
So far the blasts have overshadowed everything else. It made the two top military leaders, General Than Shwe and Maung Aye, put aside their differences and work together.
But on the fifteenth anniversary of Burma's elections it is time for the military to begin to realise that only a democratic, civilian government can create the national security and internal stability they say they crave.
The National Convention, which is drafting the guidelines for the new constitution, has been adjourned and is scheduled to reconvene in November. The next and last session of the National Convention will be short, Than Shwe told the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan during their meeting in Jakarta last month. It is likely to be finished by the end of the year according to diplomats in Rangoon.
The final touches and actual writing of the new constitution are expected to be done by a special drafting committee. A referendum has then been promised and likely to take place next year, followed by new elections.
But Burma's political reality remains deadlocked with the military leaders pressing on with their vision of the future regardless and the pro-democracy parties and their leader Aung San Suu Kyi effectively sidelined.
The two sides are probably further apart than they have ever been despite the attempts in the past few years to start a dialogue process, especially through the efforts of the UN envoy Razali Ismail. Ever since the former prime minister, Khin Nyunt declared his seven-stage roadmap to democracy nearly two years ago in August 2003, the national reconciliation process has gone steadily downhill.
Although the prime minister Khin Nyunt and his supporters in the military and the government have been purged, Burma's top army leaders have not disowned the process. In fact since the arrest of Khun Nyunt last October they have been at pains to stress their commitment to the national reconciliation process. The major difference though is that they have tightened control over it.
With the first step in the roadmap _ the National Convention _ drawing to an end, it is now time to re-examine the whole process. The second phase stage will be crucial if the regime is to be accepted internationally, even by their allies in Asia and especially Asean.
Burma's rulers are increasing coming under pressure from their Asian neighbours to introduce a measure of political reform and release the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest.
For these concerns to be deflected, the National Convention needs to be seen as credible and producing a workable result. Although the constitutional process so far has been dismissed as a sham by the opposition and the international community, the regime could still salvage it even at this late stage.
``There is still time, but a real dialogue is needed between the two sides,'' according to sources close to the UN envoy, Mr Razali. ``But the UN needs to be a central part of that process as it is clear that no one can do it on their own.''
So far the regime has effectively banned the UN envoy from returning to Rangoon. He last visited Burma in March last year. Than Shwe reportedly told the Thai prime minister last December that Razali was not welcome back. The international community, including the Asian nations, should not accept this. The next step in the national reconciliation process must be to allow the UN envoy to return.
The fifteenth anniversary of Burma's elections and the second anniversary of the attack on Aung San Suu Kyi make this an appropriate time for the international community to try put aside some of their differences and unite in putting pressure on Rangoon to reform. The confusion of the bomb blasts should make the generals more receptive.
In keeping with a step-by-step approach, Asean and the international community should urge the junta to allow Mr Razali to return to Rangoon as soon as possible and end Aung San Suu Kyi's solitary confinement by allowing her to meet other leaders of the National League for Democracy at her lakeside house. This could be the first step to genuine democracy.
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