Burma's generals mark their 14th year in power today, after staging a bloody coup on Sept 18, 1988.The generals said at the time that they were forced to take control of the country in order to prevent it disintegrating into anarchy and being split asunder by ethnic rebel guerrillas demanding autonomy. The military was to rule for only a transitional period in which Burma would become economically prosperous, and a multi-party democracy would be introduced when appropriate.
Fourteen years later, the generals have consolidated their rule and appear in no more of a hurry to relinquish power to a civilian government than they were after the opposition National League for Democracy overwhelmingly won general elections in May 1990. Since then, the country has been deadlocked politically and its economy has spiralled out of control.
The one notable difference in 14 years is that the military leaders have started secret talks with the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. These started two years ago when the opposition leader was under house arrest for trying to move outside of Rangoon in defiance of a travel ban.So far though, this has meant contact only, rather than substance, between the two sides.
The UN envoy for Burma Razali Ismail says there was more than 70 meetings between the opposition leader and senior generals of the regime _ including General Than Shwe, prime minister and the junta leader _ in the time she was under house arrest. But since then, the expected start of substantive talks has failed to materialise.
What is now clear is that, 14 years on, Burma's political future is at a crucial crossroads. The dialogue process seems stalled.
``Everyone knows the dialogue process has stalled,'' opposition spokesman U Lwin told journalists recently. Substantive political talks need to start if the country is to break the political deadlock. If that doesn't happen soon, the international community will lose patience and, instead of relaxing Rangoon's isolation, it may well implement a rigorous economic boycott of Burma.
But in the midst of the expectation of an imminent political breakthrough both within Burma and outside, the country's generals are now beginning to reveal their true colours.
The generals have returned to their favourite theme: that the period of military rule was only a transition to a form of democracy.
``Such a transition cannot be done in haste or in a haphazard manner,'' Burma's intelligence chief Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt said recently in one of his speeches.
Clearly the Burmese generals are in no hurry to introduce democratic reforms. In fact, what seems to be happening is that Gen Than Shwe has strengthened the control both of the army and the administrative structure.
Since the members of the Ne Win family were arrested for plotting a coup against the country's top generals six months ago, there has been growing signs that Gen Than Shwe is intent on establishing his own dynasty.
``It's quite clear that no Burmese leader has wielded such absolute power as the senior general [Than Shwe] does now,'' said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon. ``His power and authority are totally unquestioned.''
According to a senior military source close to Gen Than Shwe, the prime minister doesn't trust either of his closest lieutenants. He regards both the army commander-in-chief General Maung Aye and Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, the head of military intelligence, as hot heads who cannot be trusted.
There is also now a growing suspicion as well that Gen Than Shwe , now that his leadership and position are beyond question is intent on staying in office and has no intentions of handing over power to a civilian administration.
``Gen Than Shwe intends to hold on to power for another 10 years,'' said a senior military source close to the general. ``He's prepared to talk to the opposition leader, even work with the NLD in an interim administration, and even consider power-sharing at some point, but his main strategy is to drag the dialogue process out and retain power as long as possible.''
The UN envoy, Razali Ismail, remains convinced that progress towards real political discussions is still possible and that a meeting between Ms Suu Kyi and a senior representative of the State Peace and Development Council, probably Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, is still on the cards in the near future. However he had also expected there to be a significant number of political prisoners released in the lead up to that meeting. That has not happened as yet, and Mr Razali is rather disappointed, according to UN sources close to the envoy.
Those who know Gen Than Shwe well say he is an avid sports follower. In fact, many diplomats in Rangoon believe he spends much of his time watching international football games on satellite television. ``No one dares interrupt during those matches,'' a Rangoon resident said.
A senior Asian politician recently asked Gen Than Shwe how he saw Burma's political game between the army and the pro-democracy opposition working out in the future. ``You've got it all wrong,'' he is reported to have replied. ``We're the umpire, not one of the teams in the match.''
So as far as Burma's generals are concerned, they control the game. But they may not be able to do so in the near future.
There is growing frustration with the apparent failure to start the political talks. Some activist students are starting a campaign to demand immediate political reform. And now there is real danger of social unrest exploding across the country.Although the failure to start political talks may be the focus of some of the unrest, it is the underlying economic crisis which will really gave rise to the unrest.
The kyat continues to plummet against the dollar on the informal exchange market, and the prices of most imported goods are sky-rocketing as a result. Even rice is now too expensive for many consumers. The government's attempts to provide subsidised grain, especially in places like Rangoon, have had a minimal effect.
The situation is only going to get worse, according to international food experts. ``There is a very real danger that next season's rice crop will fail and for the first time in years there will be people starving in Burma for the lack of food,'' said one researcher who has travelled in many parts of the country in the last few months.
Only substantial international aid can avert a real humanitarian crisis, according to independent experts. But this will only be forthcoming if there is progress in the dialogue process.
``The generals must know they are running out of time,'' a UN official said. ``Starting substantive political talks as soon as possible is essential if they want to ensure stability.''
Larry Jagan is the BBC's Southeast Asia analyst, based in Bangkok.