Burma enjoys the unenviable distinction as being one of the oldest military regimes in the world. Independent in 1948 from the British colonial yoke, the country had experience in democracy only for 14 years. During that period, three general elections took place in 1950-51, 1956 and 1960. General Ne Win staged a coup in 1962 and the country has since remained under military rule. Pro-democracy movement of 1988 forced Ne Win to resign and the military junta, led by general Saw Maung, to give multi-party election in 1990 -- the first time in 30 years. The National League for Democracy (NLD), under the charismatic leadership of Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide, capturing 392 out of a total 489 seats.
But the junta refused to honour the results of the elections and finally declared the elections void. General Than Shwe replaced Maung as the head of the junta in 1992. Than Shew announced in 2003 a seven-step programme to establish 'discipline-flourishing democracy' and gave Myanmar a new constitution in 2008 which is a part of the seven-steps programme itself. The junta announced on August 13 last that general elections would be held under the new constitution on November 7 next - 20 years after the elections of 1990. The elections would be the fifth of the seven-steps programme. Is Burma now on way to civilianisation -- a tentative step towards democracy?
Prime Minister U Thein Sein and other generals in the government of General Than Shwe have resigned from their military posts and established the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) as the political prop of the junta. The USDP claims to have around half of the 55 million population of the country as its members. On the other hand, Suu Kyi's NLD protested against what it termed the unfair and undemocratic provisions of the constitution and electoral laws. It refused to be registered with the election commission and as such was banned as a political party.
Suu Kyi herself, who has been under house arrest for years, had earlier been declared disqualified to contest election or campaign in the elections. With the disbandment of the NLD, the elections are obviously intended to serve only one purpose -- the landslide victory for the newly-formed party USDP, trouncing the 39 other parties which have registered for the elections. Not only that. According to the new constitution, there will be 110 military representatives in the 440-member House of Representatives and 56 nominees of the military chiefs in the 224-member House of Nationalities. Key ministries, including defence, interior and justice, will remain under the military control.
The United States and the European Union (EU) have dismissed in advance the November 07 elections in Burma as little more than window dressing. But Than Shwe's government is not apparently eager to get their certification on the credibility and acceptability of the elections. China, India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which really matter in the affairs of Burma, have quietly accepted the electoral gambit of the military regime. Though only the loyal parties are in the contest, there are still genuine anxieties about the free and fair conduct of the elections. Some registered parties have already complained of harassment by intelligent agencies. The main worry is, however, about peace and tranquillity. Burma is known both for angry popular protests and the ruthless suppression of such protests by the junta, increasing domestic instability and triggering exodus of refugees to neighbouring countries like Thailand, Laos, India and Bangladesh. Ideological issues have never influenced the bilateral relations between Bangladesh and Burma. The forthcoming election in Burma is, thus, not an issue for Bangladesh from the official point of view. But Bangladesh will possibly keep a watchful eye on the border lest election-related troubles in Burma create for it a fresh problem of Burma's refugees.