Where the conflicts and stagnancy in Burma involving ethnic clashes, constitutional discrimination, ruling militarism, and role of global players including China will bring it - at the point of a peaceful national voting or new intensified battles, in near future?
Its military rulers have promised to hold a free and fare election in 2010, potential first scheduled elections in 20 years. But the close observers are widely skeptical about whether it's going to make any positive break-through in its domestic situation.
Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD), won the previous election held sometime in early 1990s was prevented by the Generals from forming government. She has long been prisoner and her NLD was dissolved last month after government's refusing to register as a political party.
As result of a loophole in the international regime to control the proliferation of nuclear weapons, Burma could very well carry out its reported intent to go nuclear secretly being free of scrutiny from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This protocol allows parties to the treaty, which seeks to build a global nuclear non-proliferation regime, to have up to 10 tones of natural uranium and 2.2 pounds of plutonium without having to report such possessions to the IAEA.
This means that countries like Burma do not have to open their doors to IAEA inspection teams and can avoid disclosing details about new nuclear facilities until six months before these start operations. Currently, the military regime is pushing Burma forward to become a nuclear state.
Oslo-based broadcasting station- the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), run by Burmese journalists in exile first reported in the early June 2010 that the junta intends to build nuclear weapons facilities. Then the alarm bells have been going off in South-east Asian capitals. The ASEAN have underscored the importance of Nuclear- Weapon Free Zone at their annual meeting in Hanoi in a very recent meeting. Washington has also expressed concerns about Burma's close links to North Korea, which has faced sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council since June last year.
For the first time in 16 years, the Chinese Prime Minister Wen recently visited to Burma. Then China and Burma signed a series of bilateral agreements -such as on energy, mines, hydropower projects and aid in Burma.
Wen and Than Shwe- both leaders likely focused on economic concerns and border stability, veering away from domestic politics.
China had been much cautious to deal with Burma's domestic issues during PM Wen's visit to Yangon. But, China has been under pressure from the West to push for constructive change in Burma.
Recent troubles along the Burma-China border have soured their bilateral relations. In last August, the Burmese army attacked rebels from the ethnically Chinese Kokang minority group, forcing some 37,000 refugees to flood into China's Yunnan province and prompting a rare admonishment from Beijing. Border skirmishes only worsened what was already becoming a strained state relationship with China.
Burma was one of the first countries to recognise the People's Republic of China in 1949, but relations turned for the worse in the 1960s, culminating in anti-Chinese riots in the then-capital, Rangoon -now known as Yangon. Then for many years, China backed Burmese communists in their armed struggle with the government, and many of Burma's current leaders once fought against the communists.
But when Western countries imposed broad sanctions on Burma following a crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in 1988, China upped aid and arms shipments and fostered trade relations. Since then, China has provided broad diplomatic and economic support for the junta. China also offers Burma some protection within the United Nations Security Council.
In October 2009, China started building a crude oil port in Burma, part of a pipeline that will carry 12 million metric tons of crude oil a year from the Middle East and Africa through Burma into China, roughly 6 percent of China's total imports last year. Another pipeline, slated to come online in 2012, will have a capacity to bring in 12 million cubic meters of gas from Burma into China. Burma gives China access to the Indian Ocean through its ports, not just for oil and gas import and export to China's landlocked southwest, but also for potential military bases.
With investments totaling 1.8 billion dollars as of January 2010, China is the third largest investor in Burma, after Thailand and Singapore. Burma depends on China in many ways. China - Burma relation is somewhat like that of China and North Korea.
Today, many Burmese view China as a pillager of their resources. China, meanwhile, has grown increasingly frustrated with the lack of political reform in Burma and troubles at its borders. Frustrations on both side at the governments and citizens level has been growing. In Burma, the junta has for several years tried to reduce its dependence on the latter by courting other nations, namely, India and Russia.
Besides, Burma's military regime faces formidable challenges from ethnic rebel groups. Burma has some 130 ethnic communities that make up over 40 percent of the country's 56 millions population. The military, which has ruled the country since a 1962 coup, has been linked to range of complain of human rights violations.
Such historical ethnic clashes initially had been ignited since soon-after it's Independence has one of the many reasons which lye in its Constitution. Later on, sinful moves in politics mixing with religion chips by the military further worsened the status of ethnic groups in the fabric of its nationhood.
Following a recent move, the military-backed charter is due to come into force when the new parliament sits following the regime's promised 2010 general election. Approved in a referendum riddled in 2008, the constitution sets out language to absorb the armed ethnic groups as border guard forces under the wing of the powerful Burmese military. All armed groups including other parties rejected such 'fraud' move.
For now, at least, the defiance showed by the ethnic groups confirms the limits of the junta's political powers. After all, the latest deadline is the fifth since April last year, when the junta first ordered armed minority groups to transform into a border guard force. But it's appeared that the military is not as capable as many people think.
Observers say the junta is preparing for a military campaign against the 30,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), which is ethnically Chinese and has been accused by the United States of being a drug cartel.
Complicating matter is growing anxiety that another push against armed ethnic groups in eastern Burma will cause a second refugee crisis in southern China's Yunnan province, which borders the military-ruled South- East Asian state along with Laos and Vietnam.
Besides, the UWSA, the other four ethnic rebel groups are the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the National Democratic Alliance Army and the Shan State Army-North. A meeting held very recently of all five groups sent another message to the junta that the ethnic minority fighters are not ready for change offered by the junta.
Ethnic rebels will not support the elections nor have they supported the 2008 constitution since there is nothing hopeful for ethnic minorities. They view it as an effort to maintain military power in Burma. They will resist this disarmament plan of the Burmese regime aimed to eliminate all armed ethnic groups.
The resistance to the regime's push for the armed minority fighters to give up control of the land they hold in regions close to the Burmese border with China, India and Thailand stems from the lack of ethnic rights in the constitution. It doesn't guarantee minority rights. Many ethnic people want a federal constitution unlike the current constitution, which is for a much centralized state.
The ethnic alliance standing up to the regime is part of 17 ethnic groups that began signing ceasefire agreements with the military regime since 1989. The peace pacts did NOT call for the transformation of the ethnic fighters into border guard forces or deliver a form of political autonomy to the ethnic minorities.
At this juncture, proposed national elections, without constitutional reforms, apparently are not an effective and solid program to stabilize and democratize the nation.
Thus currently Burma is apparently stepping into the minefield of pre-election chaos under its isolationist military regime. With its reported nuclear program, Burma's future direction is unpredictable and is concern to its neighbors.