PANGHSANG, Burma - Ever since the United Wa State Army (UWSA) came into being, the tendency was to brush off the group off as a Burmese proxy sent to take out the then anti-Rangoon opium warlord Khun Sa and his Mong Tai Army operating along the Thai border.After the fall of Khun Sa in early 1996, it was widely assumed that the UWSA had become the biggest card for Rangoon in their dealings with Thailand.
However, it would be a mistake to overlook the influence of the Chinese over the UWSA's expansion to the Thai border, says Pornpimon Trichot, a leading academic on Burmese affairs at Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Asian Studies.
Pornpimon pointed to the historical link between Communist China and the Wa militia, once the strongest component within the now defunct Communist Party of Burma (CPB).Moreover, a number of the Chinese Red Guards who fought alongside their CPB comrades are still operating in the Burmese frontier area in their autonomous zone commanding their own army.
The UWSA's expansion towards the Thai border, argues Pornpimon, complemented China's move to strengthen its sphere of influence into the heart of Southeast Asia.
In fact, roads linking the Yunnan capital of Kunming to the Burmese and Lao borders are currently being upgraded, while huge boulders in the Mekong River are being blown up to make way for Chinese ships coming from the north.
Behind these massive infrastructure initiatives is much talk of trade and commerce. Yet analysts and diplomats say these moves have serious strategic implications.
The Chinese couldn't wait for the Burmese to clear up their political deadlock, Pornpimon said. And so they turned to the Wa to facilitate their move towards mainland Southeast Asia.
Moreover, the Wa have taken on a wide range of investments on the Chinese side of various border towns, including hotels, shopping malls and other real estate.And with the Chinese backing the UWSA, where do the Thais and the Burmese fit in?
For the time being, it appears that Rangoon is taking a wait- and-see approach. There has been no confrontation between the Burmese generals and the Wa over their expansion to the Thai border except the 1996 ultimatum from Rangoon that called for the UWSA to return to Panghsang - an order that the Wa ignored.
"The Wa will continue to be a thorn in the Burmese side and Burma is going to have to weigh its options to see how they should play the Wa card," Pornpimon said.
The Thai government and the Army, on the other hand, have toyed with a wide range of ideas - from engaging the UWSA economically, to flaunting crop substitution projects, to beefing up the border with more troops.There has also been talk of piercing the Wa inner circle to exploit the differences among various leaders.
However, none of these measures seem to amount to anything. Thai security agencies, narcotics units and policymakers differ on to how the country should deal with Burma and the UWSA.The attitude of the current Thai administration, meanwhile, appears to be an admission of defeat.
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has decided to test the waters by granting a Bt20 million crop substitution project in a Wa-controlled area.
This is a far cry from his initial position almost two years ago when he vowed, immediately after taking over power, to take the matter to both the Chinese and Burmese governments. Little did Thaksin know that he was in over his head.
Analysts say that Beijing has more or less taken a hands-off approach to Burma border policy, permitting the Yunnanese provincial government to deal with the Wa at its own discretion.
Pornpimon argues that Thailand's drug policy has no chance of success unless all four parties - Thailand, China, Burma and the Wa - come together and reach some kind of understanding on how their respective regions as a whole will be developed.
Though the idea may sound logical - and obviously the best way out for all if the military option is to be avoided - it is much easier said than done.
For the time being, it appears that no one is willing to make concessions. The Thai-Burmese border is as tense as ever and will continue to be so long as the UWSA continue with their southward expansion.
For the past three years, the UWSA has been forcibly relocating tens of thousands of people from the north of Burma to areas along the Thai northern border.Wa-built towns are popping up like wild mushrooms to accommodate the new arrivals who Thai security agencies see as a threat to national security.
Some of the areas along the Thai border were given to the UWSA by the Burmese government, while others were taken from Khun Sa following the January 1996 surrender, said Bao Yu-xiang, the leader of the UWSA, in a recent interview in his Panghsang headquarters near the Chinese border.
Bao maintained that the expansion to the south was neither strategic nor economic, but part of his plan to eradicate opium cultivation in the Wa-controlled area.The 10,000 UWSA soldiers on the Thai border, said Bao, are strictly there to assist the 60,000-plus villagers with community and agricultural development.
Thai military and narcotics officials on the frontline disagree, saying opium is still being grown in areas in the Mong Yawn area, a UWSA stronghold just a few kilometres from Thailand's Mae Ai district.Moreover, say drug officials, millions of methamphetamine pills - cheaply produced in clandestine labs - are coming out of the Wa-controlled areas on a weekly basis.
Bao maintains his army is not involved in any illicit drug business and the only money they make from opium is in the form of tax, which he claimed amount to only 4 per cent of the UWSA's total income.He also vowed to keep his promise of turning the Wa State, properly called the Special Region No 2, into a drug-free zone by the year 2005, or, in his own words, "you can come back and chop my head off."