More bad news came from the United Nations crime trackers last week. The opium crops in Burma have surged significantly, and the increase has spilled over into Laos. It is the first time in this century that there have been such significant increases, and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime is certain that the politics of Burma are to blame. Specifically, the UNODC points to the continuing Burmese wars against ethnic groups in the north as the main reason for more opium growing. The generals' continuing wars on their people contribute, but the main reason for opium farming seems to be the old reason _ higher prices for the farmers.
The UNODC's regional representative Gary Lewis was outspoken on the desperation of northern Burmese farmers. "It's very rare that I have seen poverty... in a rural setting to the extent that one sees in Shan," he told the media. That would be the result of a long war against the Tai Yai people, many of them along the Thai border. The prospective peace treaty agreed to by the Shan State Army late last month will halt some, but certainly not all of the shooting. Unfortunately, eyewitness reports from Shan and Kachin areas of Burma prove the Burmese army has failed to follow the example or the orders of the new, non-military government and parliament. Its harsh and failed tactics of trying to subdue minority people are multi-decade failures, but they never stop.
According to the UN body, the opium crop in Burma was 16% higher in 2011 than last year _ with 48,000 hectares, or 300,000 rai planted. To be clear, more than 90% of the opium in Southeast Asia now is sourced from Burma. And while Afghanistan is the world's opium and heroin supplier, it is deeply troubling that the well-organised gangs in Burma are ramping up production of this debilitating drug once again.
Burma in the past decade has become known as the methamphetamine factory of Southeast Asia. But while the United Wa State Army and subsidiaries built their meth and "ice" empires, they never gave up the heroin trade. Mr Lewis and the UN almost hit on the most pertinent point in their report on the comeback of the opium fields. That is, that farmers have switched from subsistence and market crops to opium because of the profits. "Food insecurity, poverty, conflict" were the three driving forces cited by the UN's regional expert. But by far the most significant, and worrying, is profit.
Until now, opium in Southeast Asia was a crop of desperation or even intimidation. Agents of drug traffickers "convinced" farmers to cultivate opium because no other crop would be successful.
Drug suppression and crop destruction are only minor reasons why Thai farmers no longer grow significant amounts of opium.
The Thai section of the Golden Triangle stopped producing opium and heroin because farmers were given the chance to grow and sell far more profitable crops _ potatoes for McDonald's, apples for Bangkok, flowers for ladies in Hong Kong and Europe.
Given the choice of "alternative crops" under a scheme pursued especially by His Majesty the King, farmers were happy to get out from under the abusive and controlling orders of drug gangs. They got roads and access to markets, and were pleased to give up opium.
Now, according to the UN, farmers will get more for opium than for other crops. This is a profound change in the drug economy. It requires fast counter moves by governments and drug experts.