MUSE, Burma - Burma's leaders are angry at the international community, especially the United States, for failing to acknowledge the government's efforts to stamp out illicit drug production.
But Washington says Burma is not doing enough to end the trafficking of drugs from its Golden Triangle, which borders China, Laos and Thailand. Thai anti-narcotics agents say more than a billion yaba - amphetamines - will be produced in Burma in the coming months and flood across the border.
Burma's government says it has halved opium production throughout the country in the last poppy-growing season, which ended earlier this year. "Poppy production is down by more than 50 percent across the whole of Shan state, while in some areas, poppy cultivation has been reduced by nearly two-thirds," said Colonel San Pwint, one of the Burmese intelligence officers in charge of ensuring an end to the country's drug production.
Traveling throughout Shan state along the country's border with China - Muse is a Burmese town on the border - and Burma's section of the Golden Triangle, there is little evidence of poppy production.
The major poppy plantations here have been replaced by endless fields of alternative cash crops - mainly oranges, mangoes, lychees, longans, coffee and tea. Former poppy farmers have also been encouraged to concentrate on ensuring food security by growing rice and corn (maize).
There have even been attempts to introduce integrated farming, where orchards are broken up with vegetable plots and fish ponds, and chickens are allowed to roam freely around the fruit plantations.
Some are also experimenting with intensive livestock projects, predominantly chicken and pig farms, but crocodile farms as well. The military authorities insist these crop-substitution projects have enabled the local ethnic groups to stop growing poppy and improve their standard of living at the same time.
"The whole region will certainly be drug-free by the year 2005," said Colonel San Pwint.
In the past two years, while the main rebel group in the region, the Wa, have been steadily reducing their opium production, another rebel group in this region adjacent to China, the Kokang, have largely ignored the government's drive against drugs.
"The Kokang have completely stopped poppy production this year and had started crop substitution projects through their region," said the Kokang leader, Phon Kya Shin.
Increased pressure from China was the decisive factor in convincing the Kokang leaders that there was no option but to end opium production, according to diplomatic sources in Rangoon. The United Nations' anti-drugs organization in Rangoon, which conducts extensive surveys throughout Burma's drug-production areas, says initial impressions from this year's research support the Kokang's claim.
It is all part of the government's strategy to transform Shan state from a major world producer of opium into a prosperous agricultural and industrial center. These industries are meant to supplement the extensive cash-crop substitution projects that are meant to help the poor farmers find alternative sources of income to poppy.
"Everybody in Shan state is aware that the government plans to eliminate opium-poppy production within the next two years," said Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the head the UN Drug Control Program (UNDCP) office in Rangoon. "Poor farmers and local officials alike are in no doubt that poppy production will no longer be tolerated. Even the remotest villages, where poverty drove the farmers to grow poppy as a cash crop, know the deadline."
But there are concerns about the long-term viability of the government's plans.
The top Wa and Kokang leaders who have forced the farmers to stop poppy production are hoping that China will buy most of the produce that is now being grown.
Some of the alternative crops being grown are clearly meant to capitalize on the Chinese market. Longans are being grown throughout Shan state as dried longans are highly sought after across the border for medicinal purposes. The Wa have been growing prime-quality Chinese green tea for several years and the Kokang have started to grow Sichuan pepper.
Most of these deals are being done on a local bilateral basis and rely heavily on Chinese goodwill. But there are fears that this will not be sustainable in the long run. "Our new crops are already inferior to the same products that are grown in China," said the Kokang leader, Phon Kya Shin. "And I fear we'll not be able to sell them there."
He wants international aid and government support to improve the viability of the new agricultural ventures in his region. He complained that government interference had stopped an earlier substitution project - producing cigarettes exported to Bangladesh.
The UNDCP office in Rangoon says the Burmese government is being over-ambitious in its plans to stop poppy production within the next two years. "If it is to be successful in the long run, [Yangon] needs substantial international financial support, especially for these alternative-cash-crop projects," said Lemahieu.
But this is unlikely to be forthcoming while Burma remains one of the world's largest producers of methamphetamines.
While Burma's military rulers are taking concerted steps to eradicate poppy cultivation, they appear to be far less rigorous in stamping out the production of methamphetamines in the Golden Triangle.
In the past three years, the production of yaba has remained at the same relatively high level. Privately, UN and US anti-narcotics agents agree with Thai military estimates that some 1 billion tablets are manufactured in Burma every year.
Until recently, most of this was produced in mobile laboratories along Burma's border with Thailand. Since the summit between Burma's Senior General Than Shwe and Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in February, some of these have moved inland.
Over the past two years, there has also been a migration of mobile factories up to the border with Laos. US intelligence sources believe this is where majority of methamphetamine production is now taking place, and some laboratories have been established across the border.
The explosion of methamphetamine production in Burma six years ago was largely fueled by the demand for yaba in Thailand. In the past two years, demand for the synthetic drugs has also risen in China.
There is no doubt that most amphetamine production takes place in areas under Wa control, but Wa leader Bao Yuxiang said: "We do not tolerate the production of synthetic drugs in areas under our control.
"Anyone caught in Wa territory using narcotics or involved in the illicit drugs trade will be executed," he said. So far no one has been executed, but there are more than 50 people in prison for drug-related offenses.
One thing that the Wa leaders, Burma's military chiefs and the Thai government seem to agree on now is that it is criminal gangs that are behind the production and trafficking of yaba and not the Wa. UN officials agree and say they are mainly Chinese criminals, some with connections to Hong Kong and Macau.
But Thailand, which no longer officially blames the Wa but criminal gangs for the flood of yaba into the country, are anxious that Rangoon takes more rigorous action against the production of the synthetic drugs in Burma.
"The next few months will be a real test" for Rangoon, said a Thai government official.
"The flood of drugs into Thailand has been stemmed in the last few months during the prime minister's war against drugs - so any major increase in the coming months will reflect badly on Burma's commitment to the battle against drugs," he said.
The message is clear: Burma must take more effective action against the production of methamphetamines if the international community is to take Burma's efforts to make the country drug free by 2005 seriously.
"At present yaba seems to be the most effective crop substitution program in the Golden Triangle," remarked a senior Western diplomat in Rangoon.