Burma's notorious drug warlord, Bau Yuxiang, says he will dramatically cut production of opium poppy in areas under his control within the next 12 months. "I have promised to make the Wa areas drug-free by 2005 and I will," he said in a recent interview in his home-base of Pangshang, on the border with China.
The Wa are one of the main poppy growers in Burma's Golden Triangle _ situated in the northwestern tip of the country bordering, China, Laos and Thailand. UN drug officials now estimate that most of the world's illicit heroin originates in this inhospitable and mountainous region. The Wa have been involved in the drugs trade for decades largely because of the difficulty of growing any other cash crops and the lack of industry in the area, says Bau.
The powerful military commander controls an estimated rebel army of more than 20,000 soldiers. With his three brothers, he ruthlessly rules those parts of the Shan state which are under the control of their United Wa State Army (UWSA). Since 1989 the Wa have had a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese military junta. During much of that time opium production has sky-rocketed. But in the last few years poppy cultivation has declined dramatically, say UN drug control officials.
The Wa leaders say their poor farmers have begun to resist the temptation to continue growing poppy because of alternative schemes that have been introduced with the help of the UN's anti-narcotics body, UNDCP. Its financial assistance has contributed to the introduction of many crop substitution projects, including fruit trees and tea plantations, and setting up small-scale industries like tea production and slate manufacturing factories.
"In some areas the Wa have reduced the amount of land under poppy cultivation by up to 80 percent," says independent Australian researcher Jeremy Milsome, who completed several months of detailed surveys last year in UWSA areas. "Overall the UWSA managed an average reduction of poppy production of more than 30 percent in the growing season."
Most independent assessments of opium production in the Wa areas also show a major reduction in the amount of poppy that is cultivated annually. But despite this, Thailand's army chiefs still continue to blame the Wa for the millions of methamphetamines that flood across into Thailand every year. And western governments like the US say that most of the heroin on the streets of Europe and North America still comes from the Golden Triangle.
These are allegations which Bau vigorously denies. "Accusations by the US, China and Thailand are not true," he told Perspective. "It makes me fed up and angry.... I'm tired of hearing it. It's nonsense."
But the allegations continue, and with the new growing season at its height, there is increasing international concern about the production of opium in Burma's Golden Triangle. There are fears that with poppy cultivation down in Afghanistan, there will be more incentive for Burma's poppy growers to return to their traditional illicit crops.
The Burmese authorities are now insisting that poppy cultivation this season will be half of that of last year. "We hope to cut opium production by 50 percent in the current production year (2002-3)," said the head of Burma's drug suppression committee, Pol Col Hkam Awng.
"There will be a dramatic reduction in poppy cultivation this year (2003)," said Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung. "You will see!"
TOO FAST, TOO SOONThe promised reduction could have some serious drawbacks, however. UN officials are worried about the possible impact of this planned rapid decrease in poppy cultivation and fear that as a consequence, the poor farmers dependent on growing the illicit drug will suffer.
"A 50 percent reduction is revolutionary and we should be happy with that," said the head of the United Nations Drugs Control Programme in Rangoon, Jean-Luc Lemahieu. "But it's too fast, too soon. I don't see enough income coming in for the opium poppy farmers and I'm concerned that we'll have a humanitarian crisis on our hands as a result."
UN officials fear that if the Burmese are successful in cutting poppy production by 50 percent, and if there are no viable substitute cash crops or income generating schemes for the poor farmers, the end result will be that they have to return to poppy production the following year.
"This is what's happening in Afghanistan,"said a UN official who did not want to be identified. "The only real way to avoid that is for the international community to ensure that the Burmese drugs suppression programmes have enough financial support to make them viable in the short and medium term. And that's become a political issue rather a humanitarian one."
Burmese anti-drug officials estimate they now need some $250 million over the next ten years to fully eliminate the production of drugs in the Golden Triangle. Burma's military leaders insist that to date the government has been very effective in reducing opium production using their own resources, but now need international financial support if the eradication programme is to be fully successful.
"We are doing our best," Pol Col Khin Yi told Thai anti-drug officials in Chiang Mai in December, "but now we need $150 million alone for equipment to help suppress poppy production."
The border is long While the Burmese authorities continue to insist they are doing all they can to reduce opium production, the reality is that methamphetamine tablets, or yaa baa, continue to flood across Burma's borders, especially into Thailand. Some senior Thai military officials continue to warn that Thailand is facing an invasion of more than a billion tablets this year _ most of which will be produced in the Golden Triangle.
Bau rejects these allegations: "The border is long and they say the drugs that cross it come from me. I'm speechless. I control only 500 kilometres of the border _ I cannot control the whole border. I've written to the Thai government in the past and told them that these accusations against me are not true _ there's no evidence against us. I have also told them to search around Bangkok _ they'll find lots of drug factories within a kilometre of the capital."
The Burmese government says as far as methamphetamine production is concerned, it's not their fault as most of the chemicals needed for their production have to be imported from neighbouring countries. "The precursor chemicals needed for the manufacture of amphetamines are not produced in Burma and are illegal here," Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung said.
"They come from India, Thailand and China; more needs to be done to stop the smuggling of these chemicals across our borders."
UN officials and western anti-drug experts also agree. Border controls need to be tightened and there needs to be more cooperation at local, national and international levels if the campaign to eliminate the drugs trade is to succeed.
Over the past few years the four countries of the Golden Triangle _ Burma, China, Thailand and Laos _ have increased cooperation and intelligence exchanges. This has resulted in unprecedented seizures of illicit drugs and the arrest of suspected drug barons.
But US and Thai drug officials say if the Burmese government was really sincere in ending the production of yaa baa then they would implement far more effective intelligence controls on possible mobile drug factories.
"When yaa baa is being produced in one particular area, production from that plant seeps onto the local market and brings down the price," says a Western narcotics specialist. The Burmese government and UNDCP should be monitoring the shifts in local prices to enable them to narrow the search for these illegal drug factories.
So far they have avoided adopting this strategy - leading many narcotics specialists to believe that despite Bau's protests to the contrary, there are indeed members of the still heavily involved in methamphetamine production.
In the end though, as many experts point out, the only way to effectively combat drug trafficking is to suppress the demand for it as well as cut its production.
That means Thailand and the West must also be more rigorous in stemming the use of drugs, especially designer drugs in their own countries _ which in turn would make it less attractive for drug traffickers and poppy growers to remain in business.
Larry Jagan is a freelance journalist based in Bangkok and a specialist on Burma.
He was until recently the news and current affairs editor for Asia and the Pacific for BBC World Service.