It was heartening to see the front page of The Guardian in the UK last Monday covered with a huge portrait of a smiling Aung San Suu Kyi. At the very least it reminded the world that she was still a prisoner, as she has been for 10 of the past 17 years.
The visit paid to her by Ibrahim Gambari, the UN under-secretary general for political affairs, and his optimism brought the fate of the Nobel laureate to the fore once again. Unfortunately, hopes for her release were dashed when the junta announced on Saturday that she would be kept under house arrest for another year.
The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) junta knew how to use the high-profile UN visit and the meeting with Aung San Suu Kyi to create a less hostile international environment, even temporarily. At this point the junta leaders are unable to make any other concessions on rights or political freedom as they have their own "road map" to pursue at all costs.
They want to drag their feet again knowing their giant neighbours, China and India, will not change their stance. These Asian giants' interests in Burma are so entrenched that any move by either side would simply be a faux pas. Furthermore, Russia and China are two members of UN Security Council that are willing to stick their necks out for Burma. Their unwavering support actually increases the regime's intransigence and encourages it to toughen its stance against the opposition and make the road to democracy more difficult.
Apparently, from the regime's standpoint, releasing Suu Kyi and other political prisoners, as repeatedly demanded by the United Nations, Asean and the rest of international community, would be too dangerous at this juncture. She is still a popular leader and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), is still a legitimate political entity. She remains the biggest threat. So far, the regime's insidious ploys to undermine her leadership, including attempts to kill her through a front organisation, and her party have not worked. The latest attempt, to brand the NLD a terrorist group, is a case in point.
This reflects the regime's current thinking. Facing international wrath, especially from the West and Asean, is preferable to possible domestic upheavals led by Suu Kyi, as she has done previously. Internally, the junta can use brute force to control Burmese society and crack down on dissidents at will. Following its move to the new capital Pyinmana last November, the junta's top priority is to consolidate the military's hold and further isolate the military from civilian populations.
Ironically, in the international arena Burmese apologists and countries benefiting from Rangoon's lack of democracy and legitimate government are out in force defending the regime like wolverines.
The extension of Suu Kyi's detention was based on the shrewd calculation that there would be no change in the regional and international environment in the next 16 months that would alter the current political landscape beneficial to the regime. At the very least, there will be a status quo. The SPDC believe that their road map has made progress and they can muddle through with a new constitution backed by national referendum later this year, followed by a general election next year. The rest of world will not learn of the nitty-gritty anyway because of preoccupation with other serious global issues.
As such, it is imperative that the UN and Asean live up to the expectation of bringing openness and democracy to Burma. Gambari's trip to Burma marked the UN's return to a role in Burma after two years of complete absence. Before that, the UN special envoy for Burma, Ismail Razali, was the key person. For 15 years the UN has deliberated on the human-rights situation in Burma without any tangible action. UN chief Kofi Annan has reiterated that he wants to see progress in the country's openness.
Gambari's one-hour meeting with Suu Kyi was a big slap to Asean's face. When Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar went to Burma in March as the grouping's special envoy, his request to see the NLD leader was turned down. He fumed and then cut short his visit by a day. But being in the Asean family, his discontentment quickly evaporated after the ministerial retreat in Cebu in April, when he suddenly and shamelessly started playing Rangoon's tune.
Lest we forget, in July 2000 Asean put forward a plan to dispatch a troika to Burma for a fact-finding mission, which Rangoon quickly rejected. However, when the European Union proposed a similar plan, it was accepted.
Asean's short memory and inconsistency is directly tied to the junta's brinkmanship and ability to work the concerns of individual members against the group's collective psyche and goals. Using the grouping's fear of outside interference has shielded Burma from further isolation. Burma's ability to join the Asia-Europe Meeting last year was a big success for the junta.
After months of confusion and mess, the regime wanted to show off the new capital, situated in the hinterlands, with Gambari's visit. The junta was wise to give the UN envoy cause for optimism about the political process and the possibility of Suu Kyi's freedom. Now the Nigerian diplomat must be wondering why he momentarily lapsed and spoke of a new era for Burma and the UN's willingness to give at least US$100 million (Bt3.8 billion) worth of aid in exchange of political progress.
Gambari is scheduled to brief the UN Security Council in the next few days. A resolution on Burma, called for by the United States and Britain, could be adopted afterwards to deplore the general oppression there, including the attacks on Karen refugees along the Thai-Burmese border. It will be a different briefing from the one he gave informally last December. For the past 15 years the junta has succeeded in stopping the council from putting the Burma situation on its agenda, thanks to the backing of China and Russia.
To date it is the US government and lawmakers who have done the most to push the issue onto the council's agenda. Last week, both houses of the US Congress also passed a bipartisan resolution to extend and renew import sanctions against Burma for another year.
With Suu Kyi's renewed detention, the international community cannot stay idle. While in Bangkok last week, UN chief Kofi Annan pleaded for her release and reiterated that progress in the political process must be inclusive. Her freedom, he said, would "allow the government and the people, not only to build the nation together, but to focus on the essential issue of economic and social development".
Asean should show leadership on the Burma issue. As the process of putting together the Asean charter continues, the drafters should keep in mind Burma's actions since its admission almost a decade ago. In the long run, only a sensible Asean charter can have any real impact on this intransigent member.