The generals who run Burma could free Aung San Suu Kyi tomorrow from her latest three years of arrest without charges, legal help or visitors. More likely, the military junta will further debase themselves, and order another six months or a year in solitary confinement for the Nobel Peace Prize winner.
Saturday is the third anniversary of a government-sponsored attack on a political rally by Ms Suu Kyi in northern Burma. She was arrested, and has been detained in her guarded home in Rangoon ever since.
Well, that is not precisely true. Last weekend, Ms Suu Kyi was brought, under military escort, for a 45-minute visit with the highest-ranking United Nations envoy to visit Burma since the dictatorship took power in 1988. Under Secretary-General for Political Affairs Ibrahim Gambari, a Nigerian, met more high-ranking Burmese officials than any visitor in recent years. He was the first senior diplomat allowed to enter Pyinmana, the modern-day Forbidden City. But quite rightly, most of the attention focused on his short and apparently light conversation with The Lady, as Burmese know her. He told the media in New York he thinks Burma may start to cooperate better with the world body, but does not expect Ms Suu Kyi to be released any time soon.
It is worth a moment to consider the plight of Ms Suu Kyi. She never has carried a gun, never has called for rebellion, uprising or the overthrow of the Burmese dictatorship. She will be 61 next month, although she cannot "celebrate" her birthday in any normal sense. She was denied permission to attend her husband's funeral and contact with her children.
In 1990, her political party won fair, honest elections. It since has been decimated with arrests, torture and several unexplained deaths. She has spent more than 10 of the past 17 years incarcerated - but never has been charged with even a petty crime. Recently, the junta began referring to her National League of Democracy as terrorists. The military spokesmen say you will have to take their word about this. While there have been terrorist attacks in Burma, most notably bombs in Rangoon markets, no evidence exists against the NLD. One mark of the credibility of the junta is that every few years since 1987 they have released Ms Suu Kyi, secure in the belief that history has passed her by, and no one will remember her. And each time, they have been wrong, with Ms Suu Kyi drawing huge crowds of supporters.
The regime, however, has increased its own attacks against Burmese. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees last Tuesday blamed the junta for attacks on defenceless Karen civilians, thousands of whom have fled to Thailand for shelter. Drug dealing continues unabated by favoured men known to pander to the generals, Lo Hsing-han, Khun Sa and the leaders of the United Wa State Army. Recently, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pressed his Burmese counterpart Soe Win on this issue, pointing out that "drugs flooding across the border bring great harm" to Chinese.
The United Nations is to take up the Burma issue once again. Mr Gambari will hold a formal briefing of the Security Council, just the second time that Burma has been brought up at that forum. The UN envoy will explain just what he told Senior Gen Than Shwe at their meeting last Saturday. He says he urged the Burmese junta chief to start meaningful democratic reform in Burma. To be fair, the UN has been putting heavy diplomatic pressure on Burma for several years, but even more pressure is what is needed, particularly moral leadership.
By coincidence, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan is in Thailand, as close as he will get to Burma for some time. Mr Annan has spoken often of the need for change, and for the release of Ms Suu Kyi from her solitary confinement. He should emphasise this cause, strongly and forcefully. He will find much support in Thailand, whose government policy on Thailand is directly opposed to the popular will. Freedom for Ms Suu Kyi, by tomorrow at the latest, is surely a legitimate demand from the head of the world body. She deserves such support, and so do all Burmese.