In Burma, a political deadlock has endured for decades and both sides are aging. It is the hope of the nation's pro-democracy movement that within the crucible of recent events a new political dynamic may somehow be born.
Senior General Than Shwe, an ex-postman who advanced through the ranks during the government's bloody campaigns against ethnic insurgents to become chief of the ruling junta, is 76, and reportedly in poor health. Nobel Peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, who has led the pro-democracy movement for more than 20 years, is 63, and sitting in a notorious government prison with little hope of freedom.
The recent decision of Burma's government to jail pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi on questionable charges is an
indication the military junta never intends to lose its grip on power. Meanwhile, with Suu Kyi - the uniting icon of a fragmented opposition movement - back in international headlines, activists are scrambling to capitalize on the junta's callous treatment of their saintly leader, and their beleaguered homeland.
"The whole movement is very outraged. But it's not unexpected, we knew so well they will find one way or another to keep her out of politics, but when they did this all of us are completely outraged," said Khin Ohmar, foreign secretary of the Forum for Democracy in Burma, an umbrella organization of political groups in exile. "Sentiment is now strong. We are really trying to reach out to all quarters of the world for leaders to use action rather than words."
The arrest of Suu Kyi, on charges that she harbored an American interloper for several nights, came weeks ahead of her planned release from home arrest on May 27. The high-profile detention and ongoing trial have drawn criticism from the United Nations and Western governments.
Now the opposition is calling for a "bigger stick" from the international community, according to Debbie Stothard, a human-rights and democracy activist on Burma since 1988 and co-founder of Altsean-Burma.
"Statements alone will not work," Soe Aung, deputy coordinator of the Burma Partnership and former organizer of the 1988 street protests, told Asia Times Online. "Sanctions, we believe, are the only tools that will make the military regime come to the table. The European Union should impose smart sanctions or targeted sanctions which hit the pockets of the regime and its cronies - such as in 2008 with the precious gem ban imposed by the United States."
Other activists are not so sure. One former political prisoner, who declined to be named, doesn't believe new sanctions will force the government to change its authoritarian ways, simply because they have never worked in the past. The government has countered with claims that sanctions serve only to harm Burma's mostly impoverished population.
"The military regime says sanctions hurt the people, but we don't believe this is the case. There have never been blanket sanctions imposed on people and we are not calling for any blanket sanctions," said Soe Aung.
"Sanctions are only part of the tool. Mix the stick with dialogue, but the sanctions should be our main thing. They are the ones who refuse to come to the dialogue table."
As of yet, no new sanctions have been announced by foreign governments. The regime's closest allies - China, Russia and India - have remained silent throughout the arrest and trial of Suu Kyi. Even so, many activists see her incarceration as a unifying misfortune.
"By making this a cause celebre it has galvanized the movement - groups that share the same goals, that are extremely concerned and were involved in the Saffron Revolution - it has revived all these networks. There are an increasing number of people and groups stepping up their campaigns," said Stothard.
"International bodies are gravely concerned - outraged. They are very much aware this is an issue that does not affect one women, it is the destiny of the entire country. Suu Kyi was sick, but instead of sending her to the hospital the junta sent her to jail. That's exactly what they've done to the rest of the county," she added.
No hope for 2010
As the opposition movement waits for sanctions from aboard, the arrest of Suu Kyi has completely dashed the faint hopes of those in Burma who had hoped to break the political stalemate by participating in a planned 2010 election.
Than Shwe's gambit has overshadowed the debate among groups inside and outside Burma about the controversial vote billed as a "road map for democracy". The argument of those in favor of the election is that, instead of continuing fruitless confrontation with the regime, opposition forces should use the election as a chance to gain a certain political space which might be gradually expanded for further democratic changes.
"The NLD [National League for Democracy] has been reconciliatory in the upcoming political process which took place two weeks ago. We proposed dialogue meant to make the dialogue happen. This was the most visible olive branch thrown at the regime for a couple of years by the NLD. The army junta did not respond to these very visible proposals by the NLD," said Soe Aung.
The pro-election argument comes from diverse groups. Some Burmese citizens are genuinely frustrated with the unending political impasse and the aging NLD leadership and welcome the election as "better than nothing"; others are allegedly resentful of the political dominance Suu Kyi and her party have long occupied in the country.
"The regime has sabotaged whatever miniscule credibility this election would have had," said Stothard. "We definitely feel the regime started to feel some pressure. We expect some dissent within the ranks of the military regime - there are people who worked within the regime who had hoped at least for a little bit of space - this latest develop will result in nothing."
According to Stothard, 276 activists have been sentenced to lengthy jail terms, some in excess of 90 years, in the past 12 months. Such actions and the recent incarceration of Suu Kyi have made prior pro-election supporters look like daydreamers. Still, analysts believe not all the after-effects have been negative.
For one thing, it is now clear to the people of Burma and the international community that the military regime has no intention at all of moving towards political transition and that the 2010 election will in no way alter the political landscape.
It also brings a reprieve to the awkward political crisis facing the NLD over the election. Participation would have meant adhering to the controversial provisions of the junta's 2008 constitution - one of which bars Suu Kyi from standing in the vote because of her marriage to a foreigner - and accusations of political complicity with the junta. Meanwhile, by not entering the election, party leaders may have been accused of being recalcitrant with a disregard for the misery of Burma's people.
Some observers believe, were it not for the arrest, the regime's refusal to accept the demands of the NLD's April 29 "Shwegonedaing Declaration", which called for the release of all political prisoners, including Suu Kyi, and a review of the controversial provisions of the 2008 constitution, would not have been adequate grounds to boycott the election. The NLD won a sweeping victory in 1990 polls, which were quickly annulled by the military government.
"The NLD has a strong role because they were the winning party in the last election. There has been criticism that the NLD has done very little - but that assumes the NLD has the same resources that any other political party has in the world - in 20 years, the NLD has only been allowed to have two party congresses. The NLD's work has been impressive, but they're not allowed to publicize what they are doing," said Stothard. "The NLD gets picked on whenever there is a crackdown, but you can't expect the NLD to do all the work for the entire movement."
The former political prisoner puts the NLD's situation like this: "Many of the NLD leaders have been to prison. We should not blame the NLD again and again. They cannot organize freely so there are only two options: take to the streets or issue statements to other countries for sanctions and help."
Fragments of an opposition
As it stands, the pro-democracy movement is fragmented and searching for new leaders and young blood.
According to Soe Aung, seven alliances and more than 100 pro-democracy groups work outside of Burma. The result is a mish-mash of acronyms, ethnic divisions and agendas. (As one source for this article quipped, "If you put two Burmese in a room, they'll make three organizations.)
"Outsiders may think that is a lot of groups, but in Burma we have a very diverse country. We're trying to work together to have a strategy with common objectives. We don't think of this as a weakness, but a strength," said Soe Aung. "We have been criticized that we are divided, but I say the international community is also divided when working with the Burma issue."
Meanwhile, most of the opposition's prominent leaders are in jail, along with a reported 2,100 other political prisoners. As the regime tightens its control in defiance of international censure, the pro-democracy movement may be facing a vacuum.
"The reality is that this is the kind of debate we had in the late 1990s and 2001-2002, after Suu Kyi was released and allowed to travel the country. She placed an emphasis on the youth wing and was very concerned about young activists," said Stothard. "Even NLD leaders would not have philosophical problems with other parties if they were formed and committed to human rights and democracy."
As many activists pointed out, the trouble with grooming a new generation of pro-democracy activists is not lack of numbers but keeping new recruits out of jail. As one source put it, "Everyone in Burma is an activist. All we think about is doing something anti-government."
Adds Soe Aung: "I belive that any political group very much wants to see a new generation. New blood of course takes time to get familiar with the situation. The NLD also has this new blood and you could see it at the the prison since the first day of [Suu Kyi's] trial. I don't agree that we lack leadership, it's only temporary.
"If I may quote Suu Kyi: "We cannot tell when the change will come, but we believe the change will come - and the sooner the better."
Among the many other things Suu Kyi said was this: in July 1989 she told the military generals even before her first house arrest that they must choose utter devastation or dialogue. By utter devastation, she meant that the country would become a failed state if things kept going as they were.
Now sitting in Insein Prison in 2009, Suu Kyi may be contemplating how very right she was.
Swe Win is a former political prisoner now working as a freelance reporter.
Charles McDermid is an Asia Times Online correspondent based in Thailand.