There is a new sense of hope in Rangoon and elsewhere that Aung San Suu Kyi might be allowed home, albeit under house arrest, after her operation last week.
Buma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has undergone a major hysterectomy operation in a private hospital in Rangoon. ``The operation went well and the patient is resting comfortably,'' said Ms Suu Kyi's physician, Dr Tin Myo Win, who attended the operation.
The opposition leader is expected to stay in the hospital recuperating for a few days, but may need weeks of rest before she is fully fit, according to sources close to Ms Suu Kyi. The opposition leader was admitted to the hospital last week and underwent preliminary tests before the three-hour operation was conducted on Friday.
Ms Suu Kyi's doctor had been allowed to visit her in detention at an undisclosed place in Rangoon in the weeks prior to her hospital admission. The operation went ahead on his advice, at the hospital they chose.
Diplomats in Rangoon believe the timing of the elective surgery is significant. ``Aung San Suu Kyi obviously does not expect to be released in the near future,'' a western based diplomat in Rangoon said, ``and decided to get the operation over and done with while she is not busy.''
A senior Bangkok-based diplomat who regularly deals with Rangoon.saw things differently however. ``We are expecting a significant gesture from the regime in the next two weeks leading up to the [Asean] summit [in Bali next month],'' he said. ``Placing her under house arrest and resuming the constitutional process would reduce the Asean pressure on Yangon [Rangoon], at least in the next few months.''
There has been mounting international concern in recent weeks about Ms Suu Kyi's health and safety as she has been held incommunicado for more than three months now. Representatives of the International Red Cross were allowed to see her earlier this month and were able to dispel fears that she was on a hunger strike. A week earlier the United States had announced that the opposition leader was refusing to eat in protest against her continued detention.
But the fact that the opposition leader's medical operation appears to have been successful will not lessen international pressure on Rangoon to release Ms Suu Kyi immediately and unconditionally.
Even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is stepping up efforts to have her freed. Ali Alatas, a former Indonesian foreign minister, has arrived in Rangoon to try to secure the opposition leader's release. He is visiting Burma as the special envoy to the Indonesian president, Megawati Sukarnoputri, to follow up Asean's concerns over Burma that were vigorously expressed at their foreign ministers' summit in Phnom Penh in July.
Asean had planned to send a troika to Rangoon for this purpose before the leaders meet at their summit in Bali in early October. But Burma's military rulers rejected this proposal and even refused to allow Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda _ as Asean president _ to visit as well. Instead, Mr Alatas is being allowed to come as an eminent person and special envoy to the Indonesian president.
Mr Alatas last visited Rangoon in 1997 with then Indonesian president Suharto, who was a staunch ally of Burma's military rulers and close to the country's top General Than Shwe. Ali Alatas is also seen in Rangoon as sympathetic to the regime, so he is likely to be well received on his current trip.
His primary purpose will be to assess what political progress has been made in Burma since the Asean foreign ministers' summit two months ago and to press for Ms Suu Kyi's release. Both Jakarta and Rangoon have been coy about giving details of the visit.
Asean officials say they hope he will be able to meet both the generals and the opposition leader. It is unclear though whether he will meet Ms Suu Kyi, or whether he will even seek to see her during his three day visit.
``It would be strange if Alatas didn't see her,'' said a Southeast Asian diplomat who deals with Burma. ``In fact, Aung San Suu Kyi's hospitalisation may make this easier. He could see her on a private and humanitarian visit and not as a significant political gesture.
Military sources in Rangoon have already hinted that Mr Alatas will meet Ms Suu Kyi during his visit. The most important thing though is for the Indonesian envoy to meet Gen Than Shwe for, though Gen Khin Nyunt has been promoted to prime minister and mandated to take the leading role in the national reconciliation process, the senior general will make the final decision on when _ and even whether _ to release the opposition leader.
Diplomats in Rangoon believe the military regime will return the opposition leader to her residence when she is discharged from hospital and placed under house arrest.
Southeast Asian leaders are hoping to find a way of preventing the issue of Ms Suu Kyi's release and Burma's failure to introduce political reform from dominating the summit.
By moving Ms Suu Kyi home, after Mr Alatas' visit to Rangoon, the generals would certainly be giving Asean some kudos and prevent American pressure or the United Nations envoy Razali Ismail, who is due to make a lightening visit of a little over 24 hours to Rangoon starting on Sept 30 _ of being given credit for her move.
But the international community, even Asean, will expect much more from the generals than simply moving Ms Suu Kyi to house arrest to reduce pressure on Rangoon to free the pro-democracy leader completely and resume the dialogue process with the opposition. Time is running out for Gen Khin Nyunt to prove the government's sincerity on introducing political and economic reform.