LARRY JAGAN
Bangkok Post
March 16, 2004

The leader of Burma's democracy movement has been behind bars or under house arrest since May 30, 2003. There are signs her captivity may soon end, and that she is more willing to talk to her captors.

There are growing signs in Burma of an imminent breakthrough in the country's protracted political deadlock. But divisions within Burma's military leadership over the dialogue process could still delay any efforts to move the country towards democracy.

The latest visit here by UN special envoy to Burma Razali Ismail may prove to be the catalyst in starting a real dialogue process between the military regime and pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Prime Minister Khin Nyunt is committed to taking his country towards democracy, and the detained opposition leader Ms Suu Kyi is prepared to support him, according to Mr Razali.

``I think an important part of the way forward is the need to allow the prime minister to move all the way to democracy. And I am struck by Aung San Suu Kyi recognising the need to support him,'' Mr Razali told the Bangkok Post in Bangkok on his return from Rangoon.

Mr Razali is confident that Ms Suu Kyi is going to be freed within the next few weeks. This is likely to happen around the Water Festival, the Burmese New year celebrations on April 13-14, the same time as Songkran, according to UN sources. It is not a definite date, but an informal deadline, a UN official said on condition of anonymity. Both sides recognise this as an appropriate time to move forward.

``The prime minister understands the need to do something before May 30th,'' Mr Razali said. May 30 is the anniversary of the detention of pro-democracy leaders after Ms Suu Kyi and her supporters were attacked while travelling in the north of the country, leaving several people dead.

When Thai Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai met his Burmese counterpart, Win Aung, in Phuket last month he also stressed the need for Burma's leaders to make some major concession by then, particularly if the National Convention is not convened by the anniversary.

The Burmese regime is still reluctant to give a date for the start of the National Convention to draft a new constitution. All most members will say is that it will start its work some time this year. During the international meeting on Burma in Bangkok in December, Win Aung told his Asian and European counterparts that the convention should get under way early in 2004. That now seems to be slipping back.

Win Aung told Mr Surakiart when they met in Phuket during the Bimst-ec (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand - Economic Cooperation) foreign ministers summit that the convention would start some time in September. Diplomats in Rangoon believe Mr Razali was given a similar date during his visit earlier this month.

In the months preceding the convention, the regime is preparing to release all the pro-democracy leaders, including Ms Suu Kyi.

``Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to meet other members of her party, and conduct normal political activities before the National Convention convenes,'' Win Aung told the Bangkok Post recently. Her National League for Democracy, or NLD, will also be allowed to reopen its offices before the convention gets under way.

Burma's prime minister now has to find a way to open a real political dialogue with the opposition leader. ``Aung San Suu Kyi told me she is prepared to turn a new page,'' Mr Razali said.

It is now up to General Khin Nyunt to start that process. He certainly accepts that the NLD and the other political parties must be involved in the National Convention when he draws up the new constitution. But for that to happen, there needs to be a direct talks between the regime and Ms Suu Kyi.

``A twin-track process is needed,'' said a senior Thai diplomat who deals regularly with Burma. This seems to be something which Mr Razali also explored tentatively during his last visit to Rangoon.

The idea seems to be the establishment of a small coordinating council which would oversee the work of the National Convention and the drafting of the constitution.

``Initially this should involve the military leaders and the NLD, including Aung San Suu Kyi,'' a Rangoon-based Asian diplomat said. ``Representatives of the ethnic groups could then be co-opted at a later stage.''

The ethnic leaders of course insist that the council, or overseeing committee as some call it, should be tripartite from the start.