Tentative talks between Burma's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and the country's military rulers have begun, raising hopes that progress may now be made in breaking the country's political deadlock. ''If the talks go well, Aung San Suu Kyi may be released soon,'' a spokesman for her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), told journalists last weekend.
The military authorities have eased the restrictions on Daw Suu Kyi, allowing her to meet key members of her party. She has spent 12 of the last 18 years under house arrest, and in the past 3-1/2 years has been in virtual solitary confinement, being allowed only to see her doctor irregularly and the couple of visits by the UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari. Last week she also had a further meeting with the recently appointed government liaison official, Aung Kyi.
But analysts warn that it is too early to tell whether this is a real change of heart or merely a delaying tactic by the regime. Many hope that the meetings between Labour Minister Aung Kyi and Daw Suu Kyi are part of a new process that could lead to fresh talks between the NLD and the military government. ''These are pre-talks rather than the start of a serious dialogue process,'' said Win Min, an independent Burmese academic based at Chiang Mai University. ''But in any negotiation, both sides have to show goodwill _ so far that seems to be happening.''
The apparent breakthrough to the current impasse between the two sides came immediately after the latest visit to Burma by Mr Gambari. But diplomats in Rangoon believe the visit was not instrumental in bringing about the new initiatives; rather, it was a way for the regime to deflect international criticism and pressure to introduce political change.
''It is too early to tell whether the top generals are serious about political dialogue with the opposition or whether, as I fear, they are just using this to buy time while they press on with their own 'road map', which will effectively exclude Aung San Suu Kyi and her party from politics in the future,'' said a Western diplomat based in Rangoon.
But Mr Gambari did play an important role when he became the vehicle through which Daw Suu Kyi was able to make her views publicly known. ''In the interest of the nation, I stand ready to cooperate with the government in order to make this process of dialogue a success and welcome the necessary good-offices role of the United Nations to help facilitate our efforts in this regard,'' she said in a letter Mr Gambari made public at the end of his trip. ''I am committed to pursue the path of dialogue constructively and invite the government and all relevant parties to join me in this spirit.''
There was no reference to any pre-conditions for such talks. Immediately after Mr Gambari's previous visit to Burma at the end of September, Burmese junta leader Senior General Than Shwe announced his willingness to meet Daw Suu Kyi if she was prepared to ''end confrontation'' and her support for sanctions and the ''utter devastation'' of the country.
''These pre-conditions are unacceptable as it is tantamount to admitting guilt to charges which are totally unfounded, just to meet Than Shwe,'' a leading NLD member said.
Daw Suu Kyi's position has always been that everything is negotiable provided there are genuine political talks between the military regime and the pro-democracy parties.
Although she did not spell this out in her letter, it is something which remains the bedrock of her position, though she did make clear that she regards the ethnic groups as an essential part of any dialogue process.
The release of several hundred political prisoners before Mr Gambari met Daw Suu Kyi and the meeting between the top four NLD leaders and Daw Suu Kyi are clear confidence-building measures. This was something Mr Gambari stressed should be part of the process when he offered the UN's services to help facilitate dialogue between the two sides, according to UN insiders.
Now that there are tentative steps towards resuming contact between ''the Lady'' and representatives of the regime, hopes have been raised that more political prisoners, including the Nobel Peace laureate, will be released soon.
The UN is, of course, keen to present Mr Gambari's visit as a success in starting a process that could lead to genuine political dialogue. ''We now have a process going which will lead to substantive dialogue between the government and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as a key instrument in promoting national reconciliation in an all-inclusive manner,'' said a UN statement at the end of Mr Gambari's visit.
But clearly the top generals are not interested in Mr Gambari or the UN playing a leading role in any future national reconciliation process.
Burma's Information Minister Brigadier-General Kyaw Hsan made that crystal clear when he attacked Mr Gambari in the state-run media after their meeting in the capital Naypyidaw early last week. He accused Mr Gambari of being superficial and ignorant of Burmese history and culture; and even worse, being a stooge of the Western powers that wanted to interfere in Burma's internal affairs.
Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan was particularly dismissive of the UN envoy's suggestion that there should be three-way talks between the government and Daw Suu Kyi, with Mr Gambari acting as mediator. ''Myanmar will never allow any outside interference to infringe on the sovereignty of the state,'' he was quoted as saying on state-run TV.
If Mr Gambari really wanted to help Burma, ''he should play a leading role in organising and persuading others to relieve and lift sanctions,'' he demanded.
This outburst suggests that the sceptics may be right, and the contact and talks with Daw Suu Kyi are a side-show intended to buy the regime time as it presses on with its own agenda.
''While putting energy into the democratisation process, the government has been making efforts for the national reconsolidation,'' said the lead story in the New Light of Myanmar last Saturday, after reporting the meetings between Daw Suu Kyi and the government minister and her meeting with top members of the NLD, with rare photos of the opposition leader on the front page.
There are also other signs that the top generals are not in the least interested in the international community's efforts to encourage democratic change, and are intent on introducing a political system that will consolidate the military's power into the future.
''Than Shwe and his hardline supporters have no intention of including Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in talks about Burma's political future. They are pressing on with their own road map and are certainly not interested in having any UN involvement,'' a source close to the Burmese government told the Bangkok Post.
The top general wanted to finish drafting the new constitution, which effectively legitimises the junta's grasp on political power, and have the summit of Asean leaders in Singapore endorse it. A referendum on the new constitution would then be set for early next year, according to a senior Burmese government official.
''The only issue open for discussion with Aung San Suu Kyi, the pro-democracy parties and ethnic groups would be the acceptance of the constitution and support for the planned referendum,'' said an Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.
The regime has begun to feel the pinch from the sanctions, especially now that banks in Singapore are refusing to accept Burmese letters of credit and are now being prompted to try to counter these measures with the support of their Asian allies.
''It is no accident that the pre-conditions for talks with Daw Suu Kyi involves her renouncing the international sanctions,'' said a Burmese businessman in Rangoon.
The overall signs of a serious breakthrough remain bleak.
''The hardliners have strengthened their control on power and are in no mood to include Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD in the process,'' Mr Win Min said.
But often in the past when there have been talks between the two sides, the regime has had to accept a measure of change.
At least it may mean that Daw Suu Kyi will be freed some time soon, provided the talks continue and are not abruptly ended by the Senior General _ as they were in April 2004 just before the National Convention, which was drafting the guidelines for the new constitution, was due to reconvene.
How much the regime is prepared to engage the international community may emerge in the next few weeks.
The UN special rapporteur on human rights, Professor Paulo Pinheiro, has just finished his five-day mission to Burma investigating the recent crackdown on monks and demonstrators who had flocked onto the streets, particularly in Rangoon, in anti-government marches.
More than 100 people were reportedly killed and over 5,000 arrested.
Over the next few days Mr Gambari, at the request of Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong who is currently the Asean president, will brief the Asian leaders at the regional summit.
If he convinces the Asian countries, particularly China, to support Daw Suu Kyi's appeal for genuine political talks on ''democratic solidarity and national unity'', the junta may have to make some serious concessions, including freeing the Lady herself.