Burma's military rulers and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi may be about to agree to work together on the country's political future, after Rangoon announced this week that a National Convention to draft a new constitution will convene in May.
After a nine-year suspension, the National Convention, which has been identified as a key step in the Southeast Asian country's "roadmap" to democratic change, will reconvening on May 17. In the next two weeks, invitation letters will be sent to all of the convention's participants, including all of Burma's political parties, Lieutenant General Thein Sein, the military commander in charge of the National Convention, announced on Burma's domestic television on Tuesday.
But at present, it is unclear what role, if any, pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), will have in the process. Suu Kyi remains under house arrest where she was placed last May 30, after an attack on her and her party in Depayin, blamed on pro-government thugs.
The announcement of the convention's reconvening has caught most Rangoon-based diplomats and seasoned observers by surprise. "The fact that it was announced on local television seems to suggest that it was aimed at the domestic constituency rather than posturing for the international audience," an Asian diplomat in Rangoon said. "It emphasizes the importance of the National Convention in the national reconciliation process and now means that Aung San Suu Kyi's release is less significant."
However, other diplomats say that Suu Kyi's release is now more pressing than ever. "It is now essential that Aung San Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders are released immediately, party offices reopened, and that the NLD and other political parties and groups are able to operate freely," said a diplomat in Rangoon on condition of anonymity.
According to officials in Burma, these are all things that could well happen in the coming weeks. "Aung San Suu Kyi will be fully free, able to meet other members of her party and conduct normal political activities before the National Convention convenes," Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung told journalists on the Thai island resort of Phuket in February. "The NLD will also be allowed to reopen their offices before the convention gets under way."
But in order for this to happen, it seems likely that the regime will attempt to strike a deal with the opposition leader - if it hasn't already done so. "We are working on creating a good atmosphere between us," said Win Aung. "Before we fought, now we talk."
There is no doubt that Burma's rulers have been talking to Suu Kyi while she has been under house arrest. Since December, Suu Kyi has been meeting once a month with a delegation comprised of the deputy military intelligence chief, Major General Kyaw Win, regarded as close to the top military leader Senior General Than Shwe; Home Minister Colonel Tin Hlaing, a supporter of Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt; and military intelligence liaison officer Brigadier General Than Tun.
The talks have been described as "frank and open" - often code words for "tough" - according to military intelligence sources. Discussions have covered the government's fear that the opposition leader is a pawn of the West to Suu Kyi's support for international sanctions against the Burmese regime.
The triumvirate is believed to have met with her most recently in the past week or so, according to Rangoon-based diplomats. And some say this may have been when an agreement between Suu Kyi and the military top brass may have been reached.
"There must have been a deal struck during those talks on the NLD's participation in the National Convention," said a senior Western diplomat. "It is possible that she [Suu Kyi] also sent a letter to Senior General Than Shwe pledging the NLD's commitment to the government's national reconciliation," he added.
But that is unlikely unless the government promised during those talks to change the procedural rules of the National Convention and allow a free debate on the principles upon which Burma's new constitution is to be based.
Previously, everything had been tightly controlled by the government-appointed committee that oversaw the convention's proceedings. All speeches had to be submitted to the censors, and no impromptu interventions from the floor were allowed.
Meanwhile, pro-democracy activists outside Burma have dismissed suggestions that Suu Kyi has reached a deal with the regime.
And while speculation continues to circulate, what is certain is that she is unlikely to have agreed to anything without meeting with the rest of the NLD's central executive committee, several of whom also are under house arrest. "As yet we have not met our leader," said one of NLD's leaders who was released late last year. "I really wish we had; we are desperate to see her," he said.
But according to an Asian diplomat who closely follows developments in Burma, a secret meeting between Suu Kyi and some of the other NLD leaders has indeed taken place. Of course, this does not necessarily mean that a deal has been reached at this stage - just that Suu Kyi may be seriously considering a compromise with the regime.
If this is the case, the next step the pro-democracy leader takes will certainly involve a meeting with the rest of the NLD leadership and probably a later meeting with Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt to seal any agreement.
In any event, talk of meetings, agreements and compromises on issues such as political cooperation are escalating rapidly, and to many people's surprise. While there had been growing signs in Rangoon of Suu Kyi's release after the mid-April Water Festival celebrations for the Burmese new year, there had been little evidence that the convention was about to start its work any time soon.
In fact, Foreign Minister Win Aung reportedly told his Thai counterpart, Surakiart Sathirathai, when they met in Phuket in February that the convention would start in September.
However, a decision to bump up the convention may have been prompted by the international community, particularly United Nations envoy Razali Ismail. According to UN officials, Razali told General Khin Nyunt during his trip to Burma in early March that the international community would find it unacceptable for the convention to start after the May anniversary of Suu Kyi's detention.
In addition, during the retreat of Southeast Asian foreign ministers a few weeks ago, Surakiart again pressed Win Aung on convening the convention as soon as possible - preferably April - and urged the Burmese government to consider releasing Suu Kyi as soon as possible. One, or both of these actions are regarded as a prerequisite for the next meeting of the Thai-sponsored "Bangkok Process" leading to political reform in Burma. It is scheduled to convene in late April.
But it seems it may have been the strong urging of the Chinese deputy prime minister, Wu Yi, who has just been to Rangoon, that may have persuaded Burma's top ruler Than Shwe to allow the prime minister to take what many hope is the first real step in the government's "roadmap" to democracy.