Aung San Suu Kyi's latest term under house arrest is set to expire on May 27, and Burma's military government will almost certainly extend her detention again. It has been nearly three years since she was last free.
In November 2005, the junta announced that Daw Suu Kyi, 61, would remain in custody for an additional six months _ a deadline that expires at the end of this month. While the move created confusion and outrage, it was also expected. The junta had extended her detention the previous year.
Burma's information minister, Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan, has threatened recently to outlaw Daw Suu Kyi's opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) for alleged links to "expatriate terrorists" aiming to destabilise the country.
All signs seem to point to another lengthy extension for the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize laureate _ that is, unless some miraculous diplomatic breakthrough can be achieved between the two sides. It wasn't so long ago that such a miracle almost occurred.
A well-placed Western diplomat with close ties to the NLD and the ruling generals _ and privy to negotiations conducted between the two sides, has now revealed that an unprecedented political breakthrough was nearly achieved in early 2004, at which time Daw Suu Kyi agreed to send a letter of compromise to Senior General Than Shwe, head of Burma's ruling council.
According to the diplomat, Daw Suu Kyi in mid-March sent the letter, in which she made no reference to the 1990 elections, but rather stated that she and the NLD were prepared to work shoulder to shoulder with the government to improve the political situation for the welfare of the Burmese people.
At the same time, Daw Suu Kyi held several meetings with the ruling junta's chief negotiators, including former home affairs minister, Col Tin Hlaing, ex-deputy military intelligence chief Maj-Gen Kyaw Win, and Brig-Gen Than Htun.
The outcome of the negotiations was positive, said the diplomat. Daw Suu Kyi and senior NLD members agreed to attend the forthcoming National Convention and to discuss openly and frankly the seven-point roadmap to democracy outlined by the regime.
In return, the regime agreed to free Daw Suu Kyi.
During ongoing negotiations, Daw Suu Kyi even agreed to revisit a discussion of the regime's "six objectives" laid down at the convention, one of which was that the military would maintain a leading role in national politics.
The concessions agreed to by Daw Suu Kyi were extraordinary _ more so, as she was making them to the man who had tried to have her assassinated in May 2003, when a junta-backed mob attacked her convoy in Depayin.
She was subsequently detained in Insein prison and later transferred to her residence on University Avenue.
"It was so close," said the Western diplomat about the negotiations and the possible breakthrough that would have ended more than a decade-long political stalemate.
The diplomat said that the idea of sending a letter to Gen Than Shwe was encouraged by Chinese diplomats concerned by the growing political tension in Burma.
Daw Suu Kyi was initially opposed to the idea. "I don't want to send a letter to someone who tried to kill me," the diplomat quoted her as saying.
Opposition groups at home and abroad largely blamed Gen Than Shwe for the deadly attack.
Daw Suu Kyi had expressed her desire to approach Khin Nyunt, then the prime minister and head of military intelligence, with the letter.
In the end, she relented. Khin Nyunt was reportedly happy with her decision.
What had looked to be the best opportunity for real political progress since the aborted 1990 elections, however, quickly and inexplicably fell to pieces.
Minister of Home Affairs Col Tin Hlaing met Daw Suu Kyi at her house just prior to the reopening of the National Convention in May 2004. He told her that she could not be released. The junta chief, it seemed, had changed his mind.
In response, NLD leaders publicly admonished the regime for not releasing Daw Suu Kyi and announced their intention not to participate in the National Convention.
Any chance of a miracle had vanished.
And five months later, all hell broke loose. In October 2004, Khin Nyunt was sacked as prime minister and his elaborately constructed intelligence apparatus was dismantled.
In the following weeks, Tin Hlaing and all other liaison officers in Khin Nyunt's camp who were involved with the negotiations with Daw Suu Kyi were purged.
She was effectively cut off from any contact with the regime.
Daw Suu Kyi has spent three separate terms under house arrest since 1989. Her latest is the most severe, as she has virtually no contact with the outside world _ including NLD leaders, who say they have had no contact for the last two years.
In 2003, she was allowed to see UN special envoy Razali Ismail, who quit his post earlier this year because the regime had effectively barred him from the country.
Now, only her personal physician is allowed periodic visits.
In February 2006, the NLD reached out once again to the regime by proposing the establishment of a "people's parliament" comprising winning candidates from the 1990 elections, which would acknowledge the military rulers as a de jure, or lawful, transitional government.
And once again, the olive branch was spurned. Instead of peace, the regime has stepped up pressure on the party by forcing members to resign and stating publicly that it is at least considering the possibility of outlawing the organisation.
What this means for the future of Burma _ and the future of the NLD _ is unclear. Living in extreme isolation in recent years, Daw Suu Kyi may wonder what role is left for her in the future of the country. According to the diplomat, her role remains one of vital importance. "She still wants to work for the country," he said. "The country needs her."
Aung Zaw is the editor of the "Irrawaddy" magazine based in Chiang Mai. The magazine covers Burma and Southeast Asia affairs. www.irrawaddy.org