The appointment last week of the United States' first special envoy to Burma, Derek Mitchell, promises to refocus US policy towards the isolated country after previous engagement overtures failed to gain diplomatic traction. The US has maintained punitive economic sanctions against the military regime for over two decades.
President Barack Obama chose Mitchell to fill the position in April, around 18 months after the State Department announced its new Burma policy and almost three years after the position was mandated by the 2008 JADE Act. The new position, which is charged with developing a cohesive international approach to US policy and liaising directly with the Burmese government, carries ambassadorial rank.
A well-respected Asia hand, Mitchell was formerly the Defense Department's deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security and prior to that a policy wonk with different Washington-based think-tanks. He first visited Burma in 1995 while with the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs, where he met with both senior government officials and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
United States policy on Burma took a turn in September 2009 after a policy review was concluded by the State Department. The review concluded that a heavy reliance on sanctions and isolation had been counter-productive. Instead of changing the military junta's attitude, the assessment concluded, Washington's public support for Suu Kyi and focus on the regime's human-rights record only fueled the ruling generals' paranoia of a US invasion and further isolated the country.
Under the new policy, Washington opted for a more flexible policy approach that integrated both sanctions and engagement. The new approach was in line with Obama's stated dual-track approach of "principled engagement" to deal with what Washington considers unsavory nations.
In Burma's case, benchmarks for the removal of sanctions and normalization of diplomatic and commercial ties have centered on the release of over 2,000 political prisoners, reconciliation with the democratic opposition and ethnic minorities, increased respect for human-rights norms and adherence to United Nations nonproliferation agreements.
The policy has motivated several high-level visits by US statesmen and diplomats but so far has made little if any progress. US deputy assistant secretary of state Joseph Yun met in May with Suu Kyi and senior government officials including foreign minister Wanna Maung Lwin.
This was followed by a visit from prominent senator John McCain at the beginning of June. McCain was able to meet in Naypyidaw with first vice president Tin Aung Myint Oo and speaker of the upper house of parliament Shwe Mann. Both officials are former generals and key junta leaders. In Rangoon, McCain met with opposition leaders Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated the policy during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF) meet held last month in Bali, Indonesia. There, she called for the release of some 2,200 political prisoners, dialogue with the opposition and ethnic minority leaders, and compliance with UN Security Council resolutions, a reference to a suspected nuclear program Burma is developing with North Korean assistance.
Clinton also put ASEAN on notice that Washington was not in favor of granting Burma the chairmanship of the regional grouping in 2014 unless significant reforms were carried out. Mitchell echoed these concerns during his senate confirmation hearings last week.
Many analysts perceive the US's public concerns about human rights and democracy as cover for a harder security agenda. While human rights and democracy garner popular support domestically and in the international arena, Washington's concerns lie more with a desire to blunt China's influence and impair Naypyidaw's potentially regionally destabilizing relations with North Korea.
Beijing has made huge investments in Burma's natural resources to power its burgeoning economy. Additionally, Burma's geographic position provides China with a trade route for its landlocked Yunnan province as well as a strategic route for oil and gas imports that avoids the easily blocked Malacca Straits. To this end, China is helping to construct a deep-sea port on Burma's western coast and building dual gas and oil pipelines to connect the port with its southwestern city of Kunming.
In recent years, the US has bid to improve relations with various Southeast Asian nations to counterbalance China's rising influence in a region some felt Washington overlooked in its singular pursuit of its global "war on terror". Recent efforts have seen the US improve bilateral ties with Cambodia and Laos, both countries widely viewed as falling into China's regional sphere of influence.
Another major US strategic concern is Burma's growing ties with North Korea, especially in regards to missile and nuclear technology. Mitchell said in his hearing that it is "absolutely critical" for Burma to abide by UN nonproliferation sanctions banning trade in military hardware with Pyongyang. Last year, American naval units shadowed a North Korean freighter suspected to be carrying weapons en route to Burma. The ship was eventually forced to turn around.
New policy momentum
Burma watchers believe that Mitchell's confirmation will provide full-time US commitment to Burma issues and a momentum behind policy that has been lacking since September 2009. Until now, Burma policy has been spearheaded by assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Kurt Campbell, who has made strong efforts towards Burma but must also deal with the entire region.
Mitchell's position will be decidedly difficult. Initially, he will likely be charged with assessing recent developments in Burma, including last year's general elections, this year's formation of a nominally civilian government, the release of Suu Kyi from house arrest, continued detention of political prisoners, human-rights abuses and ongoing military offensives against minority groups.
Mitchell will have to contend with the already substantial support Burma receives from China and India at a time the US's economic clout is in doubt. Both China and India covet Burma's resources and value its geostrategic position and are engaged in a competition for influence to gain advantage in a struggle more about their own mutual insecurities than Burma as a security risk.
In a 2007 article in Foreign Affairs co-written by Asia expert Michael Green, Mitchell expressed the necessity of developing an approach to Burma in conjunction with ASEAN, Japan and non-Asian actors such as the European Union in order to produce a multilateral approach that cannot be ignored by China and India. The article argued such an approach would put China and India in a position of choosing to join and perhaps lead rather than be seen as obstructionist in an issue of importance to their regional neighbors.
In line with this thinking, Mitchell said during his senate confirmation hearing that he would seek to coordinate with international partners including ASEAN, China, India and Europe to develop a more coherent approach to Burma. He noted that previous efforts were undermined by a lack of effective coordination among key members of the international community.
As Mitchell pursues Washington's engagement policy he will simultaneously have to work on encouraging democratic reform and respect for human rights inside Burma's new nominally civilian government. He stated during his confirmation hearing that he will attempt to carry this out through seeking "direct and candid dialogue" with Burma's government and responding "flexibly" to evolving conditions.
One stated element of US policy is that Burma's rulers must provide proof of progress in reforming its political system and respect for human rights in order for increased engagement. This leaves the ball largely in Naypyidaw's court. So far, the US has voiced almost consistent disappointment in Naypyidaw since the policy shift, including in the November 2010 elections which the US referred to as "fatally flawed".
Myanmar's new government has sent mixed signals since the elections and the formation of the new government at the end of March. President Thein Sein's inaugural address contained promises of reform but it is doubtful much can be carried out while divisions exist between powerful ex-military hardliners such as Shwe Mann and Tin Aung Myint Oo who are dissatisfied with the division of power and more moderate elements in the government.
That said, a July 25 meeting between Suu Kyi and labor and social welfare minister Aung Kyi was described as "productive" and "constructive" and raised hopes for more substantive dialogue between the government and the opposition movement. However, at the same meeting, Suu Kyi was requested to register her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), a move she and party stalwarts have resisted because they reject the 2008 constitution and its election rules.
Meanwhile, the army has stepped up military campaigns against ethnic minority groups situated in border areas with Thailand and China. Security experts believe the recent breakdown in ceasefire agreements with various ethnic groups has moved the country dangerously close to widespread civil war. Human-rights groups have accused the army of new abuses during its military operations.
During his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in June, Mitchell signaled a willingness to improve ties with Naypyidaw but was also critical of Burma's claims of transition to civilian rule, saying "a political system that exhibits anything close to recognizable standards of representative democracy remains to be seen."
With Mitchell in charge, the US may wish to enter a new phase in its engagement overtures towards Burma. But its new seasoned envoy will need deep stores of patience and flexibility in dealing with a regime that marches to the beat of its own drummer and demonstrated a concerted effort to resist international pressure for change.