Having devised the elections laws and published, there are many things which could scupper the whole thing, not to mention lack of good faith and transparency. General Than Shwe got a worried mind.
First of all the flawed document was drawn not only to cast wide his safety net in permanent and irreversible way but also find a way to prevent Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from participating in the election, so that he can hold the fort as long as he lives. The enormous pressure from the International community left him with no choice but to jump start this election law after months of delay.
He had never hesitated to calibrate the repression for the past two decades to remove all elements which would challenge his authority. At the same time he ransacked the economy for the benefit of his family and supporters. It has now embodied his absolute control over the whole population. That is partly tribute to his skill in convincing the supporters that he is their champion who is able to crush dissidents, protect their interest, and manipulate international opinion. Now he tries to prolong his legitimacy officially by packing the parliament with his yes men and cronies.
His old age and frail health is now straining him to overcome the momentous event which is approaching shakily. He senses a moment of crisis in his struggle for the safety of his family and cronies who enriched themselves through questionable means. Because for the upcoming parliament, he has to field 166 candidates from the army ranks and oversee the forming of both interim government and a new government after the poll. It will inevitably see a climax of sorts in the lengthy process. These are dangerous times indeed.
Any chance of political change in the constitution has been all but crushed and stripped of by the dreadful electoral law and his taste to rule as he sees fit. He will not rush for the exit. He still wishes to enjoy the same privilege of which all major decisions have to be referred to him. The most matter to him is not the fair and inclusive election, but only 160 people he has to select for the parliament will not pose any harm to his authority later on. This is a thankless task and most likely to falter. Far more is at stake than this. New government hopefully and rightfully would raise the voice about the existing method of wealth distribution among his cronies who do so well out of present wretched system. People usually threw the money around and got lucrative projects on the merit of who can most pander to the first family, and eventually that has to stop one way or another. Considering of how much time left on his side, few will believe he could step in to contain this dangerous sense of drift without antagonizing the status quo of his supporters who have profited from his uncontested control and from his regime’s corruption.
This may be last and final salvo for Than Shwe before he takes himself completely off the national theatre. He has merely agreed to step aside, but not to dilute his absolute control yet. That is why it is too important for him not to make any mistake in culling the people. He himself was picked by Ne Win for his self-seeking loyalty and his seemingly low profile. It turned out to be Ne Win’s biggest mistake for his life. He must be kicking himself if he bungled like that to repeat it. This final act will decide whether he can lead comfortable life in final years of his life or this could bring a living hell.
Apparently, he has slated General Myint Swe, nephew of his wife Daw Kyaing Kyaing, to be next army chief and in charge of Interim Government together with five other young generals including General Myint Hlaing. General Mg Aye and Thuya Shwe Man are already shown the door for retirement. Candidacy of General Tin Aye is out of the question because of his so called eccentricity. The problem of picking right people to him is the tedious necessity because younger breed in higher positions are the people who has an ounce of creativity or intelligence, but tons of servitude which is the only way to survive in his loyalty based organization.
Moreover, Than Shwe can’t help either when the bickering occurs because little did Than Shwe know of how to go with the national assembly. His only experience is to deliver a rigged referendum but it is only an easy part. It does not need any proof at all except a written statement to read on television. When Ne Win ran his puppet government after 1974 it seemed to be a lot easier because necessary infrastructures were in place. General Ne Win took twelve years in preparation for this election after the army took over in 1962. Than Shwe seemed to have no plan for election until the demonstration broke out in 2007 saffron Revolution. These infamous events forced him to make hasty plans for election.
This time around is a lot different. Than Shwe is getting old and will soon to be history. Introducing a new Government is a formidable task while his family and all his cronies are still treating the state coffers as their personal slush fund. Furthermore, he still wishes to leave his prerogatives intact surrounded by all his ill-gotten wealth and to live in peace. Supposed he is rendered incapacitated due to some reason, the new comers will call for to turn over their books to international accountants.
The General has failed the state but fortified the regime. Why the population is still denied with the basic needs as electricity or water supply in natural resources rich country for scores of decades. The citizens do not know where all the wealth has gone while two thirds of whom subsist in grinding proverty. Bribery is rampant in all levels of government institution and judiciary has been transformed a personal tool to suppress the opposition. People are left to do what they want as long as they do not support NLD or opposition. Pro Government gang “Kyant Fonts” and “Swan Arshins” are given free hands to intimidate the opposition. Education is a neglected commodity where you can get the grades as you wish depends on how much money you can pay. Economy is a wreck under control of a few individuals who are closed with the Generals. The system broke down due to his poor, selfish management and greediness.
It is hard to envisage Burma where personal rule and private corruption are replaced by a functioning constitution, a substantial element of federalism and pluralist institutions by the people with characters of incompetence and corruption.
Early this month General Than Shwe has ordered Thein Sein-led cabinet to form a new party with the use of hair-splitting legalism. Technically, the plan requires them to resign from their posts before they contest in the election. Election law stipulates that the contestants can not be the government employees. There would be ex ministers plus one quarter the army chief is going to appoint in the new assembly. This would be the cut of quite another cloth.
This seems to be a two way streets for the country. This could be the end of Kyant Fonts party which is infamous for their notoriety. Without the enormous vote rigging these people can not be elected. If they are not elected that will be the end of the pillar of Than Shwe Establishment. If Than Shwe rigs the votes as he did in the last referendum, yes they will be still in the new government dangling from his palm. If that is the case, there will be scant prospect of a more tolerable life for Burmese people in the future than what it has been.
Another compounded headache for Than Shwe is the seemingly intractable wrangle with cease fire groups over the formation of border guards. Further north is Kachin, east is United Wa Army and down south are Karen fighters. Ex- General Khin Nyunt negotiated ceasefire with them and the military government had agreed their rights to do legitimate business in the legal fold. They broke their promises as always. It noted that some cretins in the cabinet appeared to have played their hand in the plan of conversion the ethnic ceasefire groups into border guards under the army, which can subsequently remove their independence. If they do not play along, the government will have the use of force to eject them from the territory they had conquered.
Today’s Burmese army is mainly composed of corrupt officers,- once proud fighters against the communists, Kummington forces, etc are the things of past. Now the morale and unity are in its lowest at the sight of their superiors running the country as their own fief. That will find its most radical expression inside the army as what purpose they need to wage wars among their own people. There were instances that the field commanders involved in colluding with the enemies to avoid confrontations in front lines. Rumours are that China explicitly let it known that they will not sit and watch if the war break out at their backyard. In recent days, military hardware are reported to be supplied to the border regions openly. General Than Shwe knows too well he can not win this war. The threat of war has been declared, ultimatum issued but no sign of action from the Burmese army so far. Face-saving compromise is believed to be generated to relieve this paralysis.
What more could he expect from today’s Burmese army?. If he presses too hard on fighting with ethnic armies it will backfire and mutiny among the ranks is only a few steps away. He has to walk carefully when the threat to the survival for the army is imminent. He won’t surely let it happen on his watch.
After so much war-mongering, the solution could be found with Daw Aung Sann Su Kyi who can stand the best chance of convincing these squabbling armed groups. To gain their trust, the whole stage needs to be set out as precisely as possible how the election law to be modified or how 1990 election to be honored. The authorities need to lend their assurance to overcome the doubts, and to bear the burden of countenance of being prepared to countenance the rule of law.
What could the grounds be on to procrastinate the announcement of the election date remains unclear This is the one of the most disturbing aspects of his regime. Only the plausible explanation is that General Than Shwe is uncertain what he is going to do about this enterprise. Almost no one surprises if he jumps ship for his safety and survival against the will of entire population, as expressed in United Nations resolutions. He saw the disgraceful downfall of General Ne Win as the result of his reluctant measures to democracy. If he wanted not to repeat the mistake as vindicated by the past events, the system has to change.
The coming days are important for the history of Burma. Before it is too late, Senior General Than Shwe should be statesman enough to see that his dignity is better served by making Burma a democratic country on his watch. It will anyway materialize itself at some distant point in the future.
The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of Rebound88. The information contained is made available to the readers by the virtue of the letter sent to us.