At the start of year 2010, many stake holders in Burmese politics have been crossing their fingers of what NLD would say about the upcoming election. Or to say more precisely, what Daw Aung San Suu Kyi would say about this long awaited election which will decide the fate of 52 million people for better or worse.
Although there have been huge efforts ongoing to update her current situation as regards to inside and outside Burma by her octogenarian vanguards. She unfortunately still has very limited information to gauge the opinion of her own people and the outside world. Her wisdom and wits are undoubtedly intact. But in the view of imminent chaos that seem sure to follow if erred in matter of deal making, her policy on this matter with shallow pool of information must be really tends to be suicidal. Her isolation from public opinion makes it vulnerable to nasty surprises.
On the other hand, from his ivory tower at NPD abode, senior general Than Shwe was making all implausible decisions for the fate of the country, with the diet of ludicrous untruths he gets from his group of corrupted lackeys.
It is not a comforting idea that the fate of the country is solely depending on the dialogue between these two individuals.
In 2009, NLD had tried to free itself from self-embrace of 1990 election with Shwegondaing declaration. When Than Shwe ignored all its demands at their recent cabinet meeting, NLD is trapped again with its own demands of Shwegondaing declaration. Intolerably flawed 2008 constitution plus over 2000 languishing in the hash remote prisons added to the NLD’s woes during the course of maintaining status quo policy.
Many different ethnic minorities, which were fighting for quasi autonomy, are still in the jungles for their survival, and figuring out how to avoid becoming SPDC border guards. Ultimately what they want is a federal constitution.. It has hardly changed at all for NLD which is fighting for democracy-oriented constitution, . Real big fights are still on the horizon.
With the refusal to grip the reality, as ever, it seems that Senior General Than Shwe already decided to miss the chance of which can be entered history as a democrat who saved the country. By all means he bent on consolidating his regime, thus put the entire country at risk. So far there is not a shred of evidence to the contrary.
If NLD can be tamed with 7 steps roadmap with 2008 constitution, there is no hope for betterment of the country. If they opted out from this process in favor of clinching a politically binding deal later, there will be growing uncertainty for the country’s future and NLD will be down the history as a culprit of the doldrums of last 20 years. The problem is they are wavering and cagey of what to do with 2010 election until now.
As the proverb said,” Problem is nothing, but solution in disguise” Sadly, this does not seem to apply to NLD.
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi did have tried to form the party with ‘Intellectuals’ in 1988. Unfortunately, she had to be content with a bunch of journalists and lawyers, who had been molded under Socialist regime for many years. Probably they chose the wrong path and NLD was crushed, squashed and dismembered ever since.
If ‘big if’ NLD choose to realign itself with the real intellectuals, there still is some hope to succeed. Otherwise, there would be stirred up the possibility of votes being divided among the people, who admire Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and who hate the stooges of senior generals, now known as 3rd force.
Recent reform in NLD CEC was merely an expansion of CEC, to save the octogenarians from disgrace. It was not done to save the country.
It is time for NLD to lay down the strategy, which SPDC would respond to. Producing only demands without tangible strategy just antagonize SPDC at the expense of total disregard in their mind-numbing stubbornness of yesteryear.
NLD should be inspired from Vietnam post-war experiences.
When Vietnam War was won against United States, North and South Vietnam reunited and new government was formed, with the leading communists. All executives were handpicked from the comrades in arm during the revolution; these actually were not so good for administration in peaceful time. They put pressure on community and as a result, the organizations quickly became corrupted and inefficient.
The Communist Party realized it within 5 years and replaced them with the efficient officers and technocrats from previous South Vietnamese regime.
While SPDC and NLD continue at loggerhead over formation of the government, after the election, administrative and legislative duties should be in the hands of experienced executives and technocrat MPs which should be the engineers, economists, educators, company’s executives (enough doctors, lawyers and journalist are already saturated in NLD) and agronomists.
They are potential transformers who are capable of taking the helm to guide the country into prosperity during transitional period. At the same time they will work for the interest of the people and meet the divergent challenges from the ethnic minorities.
Those technocrats and scholars had been watching the political developments continuously since 1988. Shifting the balance of power in favor of new generation of those leaders will surely pay dividends in reconstruction of the country because they are the ones who have the acute appreciation of the plight of the people. They know how to utilize their votes to bring peace, prosperity and decent government to the country.
The so called 3rd force is also working out their own way, and stay out of the skirmish as much as possible. Their real identity is cloaked in many ways but, they are the beneficiaries of current regime. They cannot come up with a very convincing alternative to bring political maturity for the country. They are unwittingly fall into the trap of 7 steps propaganda machine.
NLD should abandon idea of claiming their legitimate power, based on results of 1990 election. It is high time to put the party machine into top gear in manner of well-organized discipline and inner-party democratic strength and unite the party countrywide.
In the event of the rigged election, NLD will leave nothing to chance that 50% of the seats must be won by candidates from any party, who has the courage to address the social ills of the country. There may be not enough time for NLD to campaign in 300 plus townships. In most of the townships, NLD offices are ready to open now. NLD can play the role of watchdog, and let technocrat candidates win in constituencies, where NLD may or may not contest.
Whether or not NLD wins, these intellectuals should gain the upper hand in the parliament, and lay the ground work for democratic government of 2015. If NLD wins, about 80% of the seats can be occupied by their candidates. Even if NLD is marginalized, 30 to 50% of the MPs will be left for the people.
The deal should be made with the ethnic minorities that federal state will be guaranteed if they vote for the people, who really represent them. To do that, NLD itself will have the stomach for federalism too. If the minorities are not granted the certain autonomy, they would not make a vote for democracy which is almost impossible in their region of low literacy and abysmal infrastructure.
Now inner-party democratic principles must be strictly observed in the freshly expanded NLD CEC and rewrite the party constitution to provide the members a say.
Until these attractive strategies are laid down, SPDC is still far from coming to term with NLD for dialogue. For now, the strategy for NLD is to leave the battle with highest dignity. After the dust settled and new democratic government is firmly in place then it is time for NLD to come back to deliver an effective leadership for the country.Bamar Gyi
The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of Rebound88. The information contained is made available to the readers by the virtue of the letter sent to us.