There is an increasing number of people especially among the democratic forces (eg: MPs from India) who countenance that election in 2010 is good for Burma. It is in contrast to the dire consequences that critics predicted. It raised the question as to these people really pay serious attention to as of the outcome of the promised election. It is nothing more than pandering to the lowest instinct of the ruling junta.
According to the constitution, President will select 14 premiers for States and Divisions. Each PM will select his cabinet ministers. Elected or selected MPs play no role in the state’s cabinet. Parliament will convene occasionally but the MPs will read the pre-approved papers.
Only contentious moment in the whole process is when come to choose the President. All as stand today, only Thuya Shwe Man is most favourite among the elite of junta for the post. Critics maintained that they will conduct the election as they have done the 2008 referendum; everything is all set and done.
Nobody really knows what would happen after legalizing the junta. General Than Shwe’s instruction from the beginning of the drafting process was to change the system, not the people. This charade is nothing new in history of the Burmese politics, as we have learned in 1974 - General Ne Win’s revolutionary council became elected civilian government with the help of ballot boxes but against the wishes of majority of the people.
The ruling council remained intact. Chairman of the district and town councils became the Hlutaw members. The slogan was democratic socialism, which created not just to institutionalize the corruption but to drain the state coffer and become a pauper state. No one, including the representatives and party officials were ecstatic at the idea of working with the so-called socialists.
History is going to repeat itself again. General Than Shwe is fully committed himself to continue the unfinished sequel of General Ne win era. Their plan and execution do not require for the participation of the citizens. Public opinion is less important than strengthening the lackeys, minions and paid henchmen who will act to implant the system of their choice. Than Shwe has been prodding his advisers to come up with new ways of mixing and matching the old methods of General Ne Win. Gaining the support of the people would be at the bottom of the list that his advisers conjure up for him.
General New Win lately realized that he had been fed a diet of ludicrous untruths by his subordinates all the way in fear of losing their positions. He himself was not capable to evaluate the actual situation. Having realized his mistakes and believed that he still could wriggle out of the situation, Ne Win abandoned his lieutenants by turning the country back to multiparty democracy theory.
Sensing his half hearted intentions, his deputies refused to embrace his command for change and vainly tried to stem the tide. As a result of that, Burma socialist Programme Party (BSPP) had collapsed.
Younger officers took over, and orchestrated the series of oppression. General Saw Maung’s lieutenants including Than Shwe refused to handover power to NLD, which was also unable to handle their victory with stronger bargaining hand. People’s liberty, living standard, and general morale were deteriorated to the unprecedented extent.
By the time General Than Shwe was in power, all efforts to save the country were wasted since he simply went back to the square one.
Nor did he know the real situation and the people surrounding it. He simply inflated his power and prepared himself to repeat the same mistakes, as General Ne Win did.
The naivety of this approach became apparent when he thinks 13% growth in GDP is real and impressive. This is the good justification for him to enjoy the new found wealth from the sale of the natural gas worth USD 4 billion. Suggestions for the measures of economic necessity were labeled as part of the western effort to degenerate the government in malicious way.
With this increasing wealth and unchallenged power he is now in possession, General Than Shwe naturally wants to throw China off his back. With the President Obama’s overture for dialogue in hand, it is likely that he tend to assess the price he paid for making friend with China. He had already approached Russia through U Thaung, Minister of Science and Technology, sending many young officers for training in the ex-communist states. But no convincing achievement come up with Russian help either.
It is probable that he felt the increasing odds that their future will be more secured by shifting the balance of advantage in favour of America and EU.
Two years ago, it would be a dream but today it becomes a reality to gain American friendship. To make this new found friendship a lasting one, there is only one factor blocking their way: cooperation of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. Even last year, nobody can mention Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s name in front of Than Shwe. Today he realizes that his only chance of escape without a scratch is dependent on her. At the same time, he has been striving to give the impression that he is doing his utmost to contain her so as not to cause the stir among his lieutenants. This is a question of growing importance for him.
There are two problems; to gain Daw Suu’s cooperation is not possible without a real change. Political prisoners have to be freed, 1990 election problem has to be resolved, New constitution needs her blessing as well.
Over the years, he has sown hatred in her. He had fostered this animosity in his followers too. He was surrounded by like minded people. Now, the second problem he faced is to win over their support to make friends with the democratic opposition. The very hatred he cultivated among his people now constitutes the potentially dangerous implications for him. He has to convince his own people how badly he needed to court her friendship for their best interest. His deputies will oppose his moves in citing the need to protect their interest, if democracy flourishes, they will loose their positions and status.
General Than Shwe has to make the choice this time. This is the critical moment he must seize his opportunity. He has to go against the flow: the trend that he himself created has to be reversed. The obstacles are not easy to overcome. But these problems should not stand in the way of things than can be done.
Election is not coming yet. There is still enough time if he wants to make the election in truly democratic nature to form democratic government.
This is the only alternative that he can be remembered as a hero and escaped the same fate that General Ne Win suffered. If he panders to his corrupted Generals he will doubtlessly end up in situation of Ne Win during his last days.
With the help of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi he would be a savior of the nation and truly democratic government will carry on with true spirit of national reconciliation. His influence will remain unchanged. The country will be spared from the endless turmoil.
The very first step is to talk to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. It is not just an end in itself. The real progressive trend will deliver the fruitful results. The benefits outweigh the risk.
Bamar Gyi
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