Burma's military rulers are planning to hold democratic elections in two years' time, according to an official government announcement in the state-run media. A referendum on the new constitution will be held in May, and multi-party elections held before the end of 2010, the surprise announcement said.
''We have achieved success in economic, social and other sectors and in restoring peace and stability,'' a top leader in the junta, Secretary One Lt-Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, announced on television.
''So it is now suitable to change the military administration to a democratic, civil administrative system, as good fundamentals have been established. The country's basic infrastructure has been built, although there is still more to do in striving for the welfare of the nation,'' he warned.
According to the Chiang Mai-based Burmese academic, Win Min, ''It seems that General Than Shwe [the junta leader] has changed his mind and is no longer using the seven-point roadmap to buy time, but instead it is now central to his efforts to overcome both internal and international pressures.
''Internally the generals may be worried about further mass unrest, and are using the promise of elections to cool people down and encourage them not to do demonstrate, but to wait and see,'' he said. ''The junta promised elections after cracking down on the 1988 mass movement for the same reason.''
The pro-democracy party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi who is under house arrest, immediately dismissed the plans. ''The announcement is vague, incomplete and strange,'' NLD spokesman Nyan Win said.
''They have now fixed a date for the election before knowing the results of the referendum. They obviously believe the constitution will be accepted by the people. I can't help but wonder how the referendum will be conducted,'' he added.
Diplomats in Rangoon, the country's commercial centre and former capital, remain sceptical and fear that both the referendum and the elections will be neither free nor fair.
''Than Shwe has been constantly considering all his options and examining all the possible scenarios in order to have a strategic plan which will ensure he retains power and protects his family's interests in the long run,'' said a senior source close to the Burmese leader. ''For some time the roadmap was a back-up strategy, but after the crackdown on the protests last year, it became the main option to keep political control.''
The junta has been talking about a roadmap to democracy for more than four years now, but this is the first time a timetable has been set. In the past the top generals have avoided setting out a schedule or giving deadlines.
''That would be like tying our hands behind our back,'' the former foreign minister, U Win Aung, now in prison on corruption charges, told the Bangkok Post several years ago. ''Anyway the road to reform, especially involving political change, always takes more time than anticipated,'' he added. ''But rest assured the seven-point roadmap will not take seven years to implement.''
The former intelligence chief, General Khin Nyunt, announced the roadmap shortly after he became prime minister in August 2003. Khin Nyunt and his supporters were ousted in a coup a year later, but the regime continued to insist that this did not affect Burma 's commitment to the roadmap.
''In accordance with the fourth step of the seven-step roadmap to democracy, a nation-wide referendum will be held in May 2008 to ratify the newly-drafted constitution,'' the junta spokesman said.
The Burmese opposition abroad has already denounced the planned constitution as a sham and unrepresentative. More than 1,000 hand-picked delegates spent 14 years drawing up the guidelines for the constitution, from which the NLD was effectively excluded.
Since December a special committee has been drafting the actual constitution, without representatives of the pro-democracy parties or the ethnic groups being involved.
''Without the participation of Daw Suu Kyi, the NLD and ethnic parties, the people will not accept this constitution,'' said Zin Linn, a spokesman for the exiled Burmese government, made up of MPs elected in the 1990 elections, which the NLD convincingly won but was never allowed to assume power.
Few diplomats or analysts believe the referendum will be a free and fair process. ''The ratification of the constitution will certainly not involve a secret ballot,'' suggested a Western diplomat in Rangoon. ''It's most likely to be a series of mass meetings across the country, controlled by the [mass community organisation] the USDA [Union , Solidarity and Development Association] run by Than Shwe's henchmen.''
Australian constitutional lawyer, Janelle Saffin said, ''It's almost certain to be either a process of affirmation through mass meetings, or a re-run of the 1974 constitutional referendum, when voters had a choice of putting their ballots either into a black box for 'No' and a white box for 'Yes' under the constant gaze of the soldiers guarding the polling stations.''
So far little is really known about the new constitution _ except that it essentially will preserve military rule under the guise of civilian government. Under the guidelines for the new charter, a quarter of the seats in parliament will be reserved for military appointees.
The president will be a military man of stature, while key ministries, including defence, will be controlled by the military. The army would be allowed to set its own budget, without reference to the civilian government, and the army commanders would retain the right to declare a state of emergency and seize power at any time it is seen as necessary.
The country's charismatic opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, who has spent more than 12 of the past 18 years in detention, is effectively barred from holding any elected office because she is deemed to be a foreigner as she was married to the late British academic Michael Aris.
Many analysts and diplomats believe the NLD will also not be allowed to run. And if they are, the regime will certainly harass their candidates, limit their funds and disrupt their campaign.
''In no way will the next election be free and fair,'' said Zin Linn. ''The generals learned their lesson from the last elections in 1990 which they lost; they will not repeat the same mistake twice, and this time they have two years after the referendum to make sure the results meet their plans.''
So far, few feel that the Burmese regime's announcement of an imminent referendum on the new constitution and planned elections in two years' time is little more than a publicity stunt aimed at deflecting international pressure.
In recent months the Burmese military regime has come under increasing international pressure to introduce political reform and involve opposition leader Daw Suu Kyi in the process. The European Union and the United States have stepped up sanctions against the junta after the brutal crackdown on anti-inflation demonstrations throughout the country last August and September.
Both the EU and US are threatening stiffer sanctions in the near future if there is no progress towards political reform in the next few months. In the meantime, the UN's special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, has been trying to return to Burma to resume his mediation efforts between the opposition leader and the junta, but without success.
''The announcement may also mean the end of the Gambari process,'' said Win Min. ''In effect Than Shwe is saying to there is no role now for UN, the constitutional process has been laid out and will now take its course.''
This, of course, will please Burma's main supporter, China. Beijing has been urging the regime to make concessions to the international community for some time. ''Behind the scenes, China 's leaders have pushed the regime to speed up the national reconciliation process,'' according to a Rangoon-based Asian diplomat.
''China has been particularly worried that their support for Burma might affect the Olympic Games in Beijing on the 20th anniversary of the 1988 uprising if the junta continued to defy calls for reform. Now they seem to have got their way,'' he the diplomat said.
While Chinese pressure may have been the key behind the Burmese junta's decision to announce a timetable for the roadmap _ especially its timing _ Gen Than Shwe will certainly only have moved because he feels it's his best option to preserve his power in the future.